I’ve noticed in the past that I feel aversion to saying (and especially writing down) things that “might be false” – where I’m low confidence, where I expect that I just don’t have the information to do more than speculate wildly.
When I try to introspect on this, I do think some of it is fear of being wrong in public (and this feeling definitely responds to local social incentives – I’m more likely to be comfortable rambling without a filter in private with close friends, and in fact do this a bunch.)
I think there are also other pieces. I’m wary that it’s hard for humans to incorporate epistemic status tags and actually take my thoughts less seriously if I say I’m very uncertain. I’m also wary of...crystallizing a theory about something, and then becoming vulnerable to confirmation bias as I try to test it against observations? (This worry is stronger in areas where it feels hard to actually get feedback from reality.) As you point out, though, the tradeoff there is giving up on improving understanding.
I suspect I’m a lot less averse to low-confidence-speculation in private than I was several years ago, and it’s partly because I think it’s good for developing understanding, and partly just because I feel more comfortable socially and have less anticipation of being shut down.
(Also want to note that in general I have only moderate confidence in my introspection on stuff like this, and this comment is mostly a ramble.)
I’ve noticed in the past that I feel aversion to saying (and especially writing down) things that “might be false” – where I’m low confidence, where I expect that I just don’t have the information to do more than speculate wildly.
When I try to introspect on this, I do think some of it is fear of being wrong in public (and this feeling definitely responds to local social incentives – I’m more likely to be comfortable rambling without a filter in private with close friends, and in fact do this a bunch.)
I think there are also other pieces. I’m wary that it’s hard for humans to incorporate epistemic status tags and actually take my thoughts less seriously if I say I’m very uncertain. I’m also wary of...crystallizing a theory about something, and then becoming vulnerable to confirmation bias as I try to test it against observations? (This worry is stronger in areas where it feels hard to actually get feedback from reality.) As you point out, though, the tradeoff there is giving up on improving understanding.
I suspect I’m a lot less averse to low-confidence-speculation in private than I was several years ago, and it’s partly because I think it’s good for developing understanding, and partly just because I feel more comfortable socially and have less anticipation of being shut down.
(Also want to note that in general I have only moderate confidence in my introspection on stuff like this, and this comment is mostly a ramble.)