This shortcut creates a prediction or bet which get’s appended to a .csv file, the contents of which can be pasted into this Numbers sheet I use for analysis (pre-filled with the VOX Future Perfect predictions for 2020 at 50% credence). You can of course also enter them in Metaculus, Foretold.io, GJO etc. But for quick, low-impact predictions and bets such a shortcut drastically reduces my threshold for making them in the first place.
Basically a part of the above: Quick calculation of bets given the two person’s credences and a pot of money.
My Anki shortcut, which appends Front, Back, Source, Date to a .csv which can be imported directly into Anki. It’s a threshold thing again; I just make more Anki cards quickly on the go.
To briefly share mine:
This shortcut creates a prediction or bet which get’s appended to a .csv file, the contents of which can be pasted into this Numbers sheet I use for analysis (pre-filled with the VOX Future Perfect predictions for 2020 at 50% credence). You can of course also enter them in Metaculus, Foretold.io, GJO etc. But for quick, low-impact predictions and bets such a shortcut drastically reduces my threshold for making them in the first place.
Basically a part of the above: Quick calculation of bets given the two person’s credences and a pot of money.
My Anki shortcut, which appends Front, Back, Source, Date to a .csv which can be imported directly into Anki. It’s a threshold thing again; I just make more Anki cards quickly on the go.