Your utility estimates at any given time should already take into account all of the data available to you at that time, including your previous estimates.
In other words, if you decide you don’t want to go to a movie you’ve already purchased a ticket for, that decision has already been influenced by the knowledge that you did want to go to the movie at some point, so there’s no reason to slide your estimate again.
It should have been, but you get pretty much the same result from the sunk cost fallacy, so people do that instead. We didn’t evolve to be rational. We evolved to succeed.
Your utility estimates at any given time should already take into account all of the data available to you at that time, including your previous estimates.
In other words, if you decide you don’t want to go to a movie you’ve already purchased a ticket for, that decision has already been influenced by the knowledge that you did want to go to the movie at some point, so there’s no reason to slide your estimate again.
It should have been, but you get pretty much the same result from the sunk cost fallacy, so people do that instead. We didn’t evolve to be rational. We evolved to succeed.