It is difficult to reason about things that never happened before. What is the right reference class here? My first idea was to say “imagine you live 100 or 1000 years ago, and you get a magical pill that teleports you into today, should you take it, if the alternative is to die?” Seems like taking it shouldn’t make things worse, and has a chance to make them much better. But this is because the world is still ruled by humans, and because you still have a chance to die should you choose so.
Speaking for myself, I don’t believe in Roko’s basilisk (but I don’t wish to debate it now why), and I believe that most futures with “evil AI” will end up with humans dead, not kept alive and tortured. So it seems to me that, conditional on being revived, most futures will be good. Now, whether “most” is enough to balance the other option, that is more difficult, but… well, I guess my curiosity about the possible good future makes me think it is.
It is difficult to reason about things that never happened before. What is the right reference class here? My first idea was to say “imagine you live 100 or 1000 years ago, and you get a magical pill that teleports you into today, should you take it, if the alternative is to die?” Seems like taking it shouldn’t make things worse, and has a chance to make them much better. But this is because the world is still ruled by humans, and because you still have a chance to die should you choose so.
Speaking for myself, I don’t believe in Roko’s basilisk (but I don’t wish to debate it now why), and I believe that most futures with “evil AI” will end up with humans dead, not kept alive and tortured. So it seems to me that, conditional on being revived, most futures will be good. Now, whether “most” is enough to balance the other option, that is more difficult, but… well, I guess my curiosity about the possible good future makes me think it is.