Modest epistemology is slippery. You put forward an abstract formulation (Rule M), but “modestists” will probably not identify with it. Endorsing such an abstract view would conflict with modesty itself. Only a hedgehog would put any confidence in such a general principle, so divorced from any foxy particulars.
That’s why any real-world modestist will advocate modesty only in particular contexts. That’s why your friend was happy to say “Just no” about belief in God. God was not among the contexts where he thought that his being modest was warranted.
Consistent modestists don’t advocate modesty “in general”. They just think that, for certain people, including you and them, self-doubt is especially warranted when considering certain specific kinds of questions. Or they’ll think that, for certain people, including you and them, trusting certain experts over one’s own first-order reasoning is especially warranted. Now, you could ask them how their modesty could allow them to be so confident in their conclusion that modesty is warranted in just those cases. But they can consistently reply that, for people like them, that conclusion is not among the kinds of belief such that being modest is warranted.
The first several chapters of your book are very much on point, here. You’re making the case that modesty is not warranted in certain cases — specific cases where your modest reader might have thought that it was (central bank policies and medical treatment). And you’re providing powerful general methods for identifying such cases.
But this chapter, which argues against modesty in general, has to miss its mark. It might be pursuasive to modest hedgehogs who have universalized their modesty. But modest hedgehogs are almost a contradiction in terms.
Modest epistemology is slippery. You put forward an abstract formulation (Rule M), but “modestists” will probably not identify with it. Endorsing such an abstract view would conflict with modesty itself. Only a hedgehog would put any confidence in such a general principle, so divorced from any foxy particulars.
That’s why any real-world modestist will advocate modesty only in particular contexts. That’s why your friend was happy to say “Just no” about belief in God. God was not among the contexts where he thought that his being modest was warranted.
Consistent modestists don’t advocate modesty “in general”. They just think that, for certain people, including you and them, self-doubt is especially warranted when considering certain specific kinds of questions. Or they’ll think that, for certain people, including you and them, trusting certain experts over one’s own first-order reasoning is especially warranted. Now, you could ask them how their modesty could allow them to be so confident in their conclusion that modesty is warranted in just those cases. But they can consistently reply that, for people like them, that conclusion is not among the kinds of belief such that being modest is warranted.
The first several chapters of your book are very much on point, here. You’re making the case that modesty is not warranted in certain cases — specific cases where your modest reader might have thought that it was (central bank policies and medical treatment). And you’re providing powerful general methods for identifying such cases.
But this chapter, which argues against modesty in general, has to miss its mark. It might be pursuasive to modest hedgehogs who have universalized their modesty. But modest hedgehogs are almost a contradiction in terms.