Less than 1%? You need to go to fairly ridiculous extremes to get that level of certainty for even things that we know a lot about. I think that level of certainty for any such question is beyond any rational argument with current evidence.
There are plenty of arguments that would work, if only you held some particular prior belief to that level. A rock-solid belief in a higher power that would prevent it would suffice—for those who believe in such a thing at a 99%+ level. A similarly strong belief that AGI is actually impossible and not just difficult would also suffice.
Less than 1%? You need to go to fairly ridiculous extremes to get that level of certainty for even things that we know a lot about. I think that level of certainty for any such question is beyond any rational argument with current evidence.
There are plenty of arguments that would work, if only you held some particular prior belief to that level. A rock-solid belief in a higher power that would prevent it would suffice—for those who believe in such a thing at a 99%+ level. A similarly strong belief that AGI is actually impossible and not just difficult would also suffice.