https://x.com/alexwei_/status/1946477742855532918This doesn’t count yet for the standards of the bet, I think, but this seems pretty close to “EY wins” to me? (The manifold market has jumped up to 93%.)
The market has now resolved to yes, with Paul confirming.
By the time we got here I feel like I’ve lost track of what the actual generating models of this disagreement were.
I guess I forgot that the whole reason* people seemed to conflate “slow timelines and smooth takeoff” because Paul seemed to believe in both, and
https://x.com/alexwei_/status/1946477742855532918
This doesn’t count yet for the standards of the bet, I think, but this seems pretty close to “EY wins” to me? (The manifold market has jumped up to 93%.)
The market has now resolved to yes, with Paul confirming.
By the time we got here I feel like I’ve lost track of what the actual generating models of this disagreement were.
I guess I forgot that the whole reason* people seemed to conflate “slow timelines and smooth takeoff” because Paul seemed to believe in both, and