The strongest argument in favor of hardware-bound AI is that in areas of intense human interest, the key “breakthroughs” tend to found by multiple people independently, suggesting they are a result of conditions being correct rather than the existence of a lone genius.
If you expend n units of genius time against a problem and then find a solution. If a bunch more geniuses spend another n units on the problem, they are likely to find a solution again. If poor communications stop an invention being spread quickly, then a substantial amount of thought is spent trying to solve a problem after someone has already solved it, the problem is likely to be solved twice.
I don’t see why those “conditions” can’t be conceptual background. Suppose I went back in time, and gave a bunch of ancient greeks loads of 10100 flop computers. Several greeks invents the concept of probability. Another uses that concept to invent the concept of expected utility maximisation. Solemonov induction is invented by a team a few years later. When they finally make AI, much of the conceptual work was done by multiple people independantly, and no one person did more than a small part. The model is a long list of ideas, and you cant invent idea x unless you know idea x−1.
If you expend n units of genius time against a problem and then find a solution. If a bunch more geniuses spend another n units on the problem, they are likely to find a solution again. If poor communications stop an invention being spread quickly, then a substantial amount of thought is spent trying to solve a problem after someone has already solved it, the problem is likely to be solved twice.
I don’t see why those “conditions” can’t be conceptual background. Suppose I went back in time, and gave a bunch of ancient greeks loads of 10100 flop computers. Several greeks invents the concept of probability. Another uses that concept to invent the concept of expected utility maximisation. Solemonov induction is invented by a team a few years later. When they finally make AI, much of the conceptual work was done by multiple people independantly, and no one person did more than a small part. The model is a long list of ideas, and you cant invent idea x unless you know idea x−1.