Sorry, somehow I missed this. Basically, the answer is that we definitely shouldn’t just extrapolate out the AI and compute trend into the future, and Ajeya’s and my predictions are not doing that. Instead we are assuming something more like the historic 2 ooms a decade trend, combined with some amount of increased spending conditional on us being close to AGI/TAI/etc. Hence my conditional claim above:
Conditional on +6 OOMs being enough with 2020′s ideas, it’ll happen by 2030. Indeed, conditional on +8 OOMs being enough with 2020′s ideas, I think it’ll probably happen by 2030.
If you want to discuss this more with me, I’d love to, how bout we book a call?
Sorry, somehow I missed this. Basically, the answer is that we definitely shouldn’t just extrapolate out the AI and compute trend into the future, and Ajeya’s and my predictions are not doing that. Instead we are assuming something more like the historic 2 ooms a decade trend, combined with some amount of increased spending conditional on us being close to AGI/TAI/etc. Hence my conditional claim above:
If you want to discuss this more with me, I’d love to, how bout we book a call?