Off the cuff: In Alameda County, I’d maybe put 2⁄3 probability on at least 85% of weeks being between 5000 official new cases per day and 80,000 official new cases per day, until November?
That’s a good way to think about it. My 2/3rds confident window looks something like 1.5k-25k per day for most weeks until November. So substantially lower than yours.
For example, if we had the same infection rate as the UK (cases are down from delta peak) it would be 500 cases/day in Alameda county. The UK might be trending back up now, but the slope is much lower. Their vaccination rate is a little higher than Alameda county but our vaccines are better, so that’s probably ~ a wash, or maybe slightly in the UK’s favor.
this Dec 15 - Jan 15 average will be at least 50,000 cases per day
In other words, you think the average for that month will be equivalent to the worst week last winter before anyone was vaccinated? Definitely seems high to me. Delta is much worse, yes, but vaccines really do help quite a bit, I think.
I buy that seasonality is a thing for covid, but I think it will be more like 15kish rather than 50k for that month.
That seems reasonable to me, and updates me some toward your view. I feel confused about how rapidly cases fell in the UK. If this has something to do with levels of natural immunity in the UK, I could imagine that meaning the Bay Area has less protection. (~9.7% of the UK has been confirmed-infected, vs. I think ~6.3% of Alameda County.)
I’m also curious how ‘lockdown culture’ differs between Alameda County and the UK—Berkeley has seemed pretty COVID-cautious to me (which makes me think the control system could be more trigger-happy, resulting in fewer cases), but I’m not sure how to compare that to the UK.
That’s a good way to think about it. My 2/3rds confident window looks something like 1.5k-25k per day for most weeks until November. So substantially lower than yours.
For example, if we had the same infection rate as the UK (cases are down from delta peak) it would be 500 cases/day in Alameda county. The UK might be trending back up now, but the slope is much lower. Their vaccination rate is a little higher than Alameda county but our vaccines are better, so that’s probably ~ a wash, or maybe slightly in the UK’s favor.
In other words, you think the average for that month will be equivalent to the worst week last winter before anyone was vaccinated? Definitely seems high to me. Delta is much worse, yes, but vaccines really do help quite a bit, I think.
I buy that seasonality is a thing for covid, but I think it will be more like 15kish rather than 50k for that month.
That seems reasonable to me, and updates me some toward your view. I feel confused about how rapidly cases fell in the UK. If this has something to do with levels of natural immunity in the UK, I could imagine that meaning the Bay Area has less protection. (~9.7% of the UK has been confirmed-infected, vs. I think ~6.3% of Alameda County.)
I’m also curious how ‘lockdown culture’ differs between Alameda County and the UK—Berkeley has seemed pretty COVID-cautious to me (which makes me think the control system could be more trigger-happy, resulting in fewer cases), but I’m not sure how to compare that to the UK.