Agreed that we have evidence about the distribution of risks for asteroids, nuclear war, etc, based on historical data. But we also have empirical experience with disasters that follow power-laws, so that most of the expected damage comes from the most extreme disasters:
Agreed that we have evidence about the distribution of risks for asteroids, nuclear war, etc, based on historical data. But we also have empirical experience with disasters that follow power-laws, so that most of the expected damage comes from the most extreme disasters:
http://hanson.gmu.edu/collapse.pdf
Thanks Carl, that paper is extremely relevant