Ocean+Earth equals [56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,65,64,63,62,61,60,59,58,57,56,55] repeating starting with day 1, plus up to 6 (so 7 possible values total) on any given day; guessing the residuals are a predictable cycle but haven’t looked yet. Edit: untrue, different base pattern. Edit2: Fixed base is [56,58,61,64,65,65,66,69,72,74,75,74,72,69,66,65,65,64,61,58,56,55]
Doom takes on one of 6 values in a predictable length-8 pattern except for 4 deviants.
Fixed the Ocean+Earth base pattern above. Also, Earth is nearly 4 higher than Ocean on average; I suspect that Ocean+Earth follows that base pattern and then Earth gets +0-6 in some way I haven’t divined. I have not found any predictors of how much of the total goes to Ocean vs Earth on any given day; I suspect there may be a cycle of some sort which is significantly faster than Morgan’s measurement period, which makes the shares appear uniform random.
Correlations near 0.42 suggest Lunar and Flame may be random walks? Highly speculative.
Perhaps important: Morgan can act on data collected during the next 9 days! If the ritual setup has the potential for Evil Demonhood, and more data will determine whether it will go awry, then he can just cancel and not do the ritual. This is worth doing only if we think that there is an enormously great result available with high probability but with Evil Demonhood as a small chance, discernable later, and if the next best alternative is something like a 50⁄50 of fine result and ritual fizzling.
How about actual values on T=384? Breeze, Ash, Flame, Spite, Void: smol Lunar: 16 Solar: ?? plz find Ocean: uniformish random but with some min/max cutoffs up to 74 Earth: uniformish random but with some min/max cutoffs up to 74, plus 0 to 6, O+E=74 Doom: almost certainly 28-33, probably 30, but with black swans
Also! Solar’s initial pattern, presumably before the supernova, looks similar to Ocean+Earth’s, but on a different scale, 14 rather than 22 days it looks like? Or maybe 13?? And Solar-Lunar has a 9-period, but we know Lunar is Solar shifted 14, so what does that even mean.
Solar looks like the important thing to figure out, here. Our realistic options are: - Choose Ocean and Earth. No demon, guaranteed ritual, strength 74-80, most likely 77. - Choose Solar plus Doom. If we can confidently predict Solar as large, with Doom contributing 30ish, Solar would be 50+ (because otherwise why not stick with O+E, so Doom’s black swans won’t exceed Solar unless they’re like really black. No demon, extremely likely ritual, strength ?? how big will Solar be.
So Solar starts with a 28-day cycle that looks vaguely like Ocean+Earth’s shape. But it starts getting little distortions, and then some really big ones around day 120-220. Then it’s fairly tame (looks like original!) except for a big spike around day 265, and a really big spike around day 367 which has just died down. Seems like the thing to do is try to model the “regular” variation, subtract it out, and analyze the remains. I will try averaging the normalish looking cycles.
Natural cycle peaks appear to be on days [20, 48, 76, 104, 132, 160, 188, 216, 244, 272, 300, 328, 356, 384]; T=384 is a natural solar peak. Normalish-between-peaks subtracted out… leaves, ah ha, a very clear 9-day cyclic thing. To investigate later, but that’s why the Solar-Lunar looked 9-dayish.
I’ve got a very nice, but not 100% precise, fit to Solar with a 28-day sine plus a 9-day sine. Barring its 4 jumps of course. I don’t see any particular reason to guess it will be away-from-normal on T=384, and the 28+9 predicts Solar=44 then, with a +-5 (closer to +-4 or 3).
So we have a choice between: - Ocean+Earth: 74-80, probably 77, guaranteed no demon - Solar+Doom: [39,49]+[28,33] + maybe Solar spike + maybe Doom spike + maaaaybe Doom dip is probably 74, tiny chance of a demon, small chance of ritual failure, small chance of big success
The conservative choice is to just go with Ocean+Earth. But there is another option, of hoping for a Solar spike. These have been increasing in magnitude and the last one provided 20-25 extra mana. If Morgan can prepare the ritual and continue to monitor flows, he could check for whether Solar is significantly above baseline (we’d give him the decision procedure) and then either go ahead with the ritual or cancel.
I think there is a low chance of a spike, without further insights. Lower than 10%. Higher than 1, even 2%. So roughly 4+%, with a tiny helping of Doom spike, call it 5%. And even if there’s a spike, maybe it’s only 10-15 or 20-25 rather than something larger. Let’s say 0.75% chance of a large spike, 1.5% chance of a 20-25 spike, and 2.5% chance of a 10-15 spike.
My answer to Morgan is that he can have a guaranteed 74-80 mana, or a chance of 84-95, or a chance of 94-105, or a chance of (making this up) 104-130. I will ask at what chance he would rather each of the other alternatives, then convert that to elicited preference, multiply, add, compare, and give him either the Ocean+Earth combo or the Solar+Doom combo+procedure. If he “chooses” Solar+Doom and then balks at the procedure, I will relent and give him Ocean+Earth.
Lunar[t] = 75 - Solar[t-14]
Ash[t] = floor(Flame[t-1]/4)
Ocean+Earth equals [56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64,65,66,65,64,63,62,61,60,59,58,57,56,55] repeating starting with day 1, plus up to 6 (so 7 possible values total) on any given day; guessing the residuals are a predictable cycle but haven’t looked yet. Edit: untrue, different base pattern. Edit2: Fixed base is [56,58,61,64,65,65,66,69,72,74,75,74,72,69,66,65,65,64,61,58,56,55]
Doom takes on one of 6 values in a predictable length-8 pattern except for 4 deviants.
Fixed the Ocean+Earth base pattern above. Also, Earth is nearly 4 higher than Ocean on average; I suspect that Ocean+Earth follows that base pattern and then Earth gets +0-6 in some way I haven’t divined. I have not found any predictors of how much of the total goes to Ocean vs Earth on any given day; I suspect there may be a cycle of some sort which is significantly faster than Morgan’s measurement period, which makes the shares appear uniform random.
Correlations near 0.42 suggest Lunar and Flame may be random walks? Highly speculative.
Perhaps important: Morgan can act on data collected during the next 9 days! If the ritual setup has the potential for Evil Demonhood, and more data will determine whether it will go awry, then he can just cancel and not do the ritual. This is worth doing only if we think that there is an enormously great result available with high probability but with Evil Demonhood as a small chance, discernable later, and if the next best alternative is something like a 50⁄50 of fine result and ritual fizzling.
How about actual values on T=384?
Breeze, Ash, Flame, Spite, Void: smol
Lunar: 16
Solar: ?? plz find
Ocean: uniformish random but with some min/max cutoffs up to 74
Earth: uniformish random but with some min/max cutoffs up to 74, plus 0 to 6, O+E=74
Doom: almost certainly 28-33, probably 30, but with black swans
Also! Solar’s initial pattern, presumably before the supernova, looks similar to Ocean+Earth’s, but on a different scale, 14 rather than 22 days it looks like? Or maybe 13?? And Solar-Lunar has a 9-period, but we know Lunar is Solar shifted 14, so what does that even mean.
Solar looks like the important thing to figure out, here. Our realistic options are:
- Choose Ocean and Earth. No demon, guaranteed ritual, strength 74-80, most likely 77.
- Choose Solar plus Doom. If we can confidently predict Solar as large, with Doom contributing 30ish, Solar would be 50+ (because otherwise why not stick with O+E, so Doom’s black swans won’t exceed Solar unless they’re like really black. No demon, extremely likely ritual, strength ?? how big will Solar be.
So Solar starts with a 28-day cycle that looks vaguely like Ocean+Earth’s shape. But it starts getting little distortions, and then some really big ones around day 120-220. Then it’s fairly tame (looks like original!) except for a big spike around day 265, and a really big spike around day 367 which has just died down. Seems like the thing to do is try to model the “regular” variation, subtract it out, and analyze the remains. I will try averaging the normalish looking cycles.
Natural cycle peaks appear to be on days [20, 48, 76, 104, 132, 160, 188, 216, 244, 272, 300, 328, 356, 384]; T=384 is a natural solar peak. Normalish-between-peaks subtracted out… leaves, ah ha, a very clear 9-day cyclic thing. To investigate later, but that’s why the Solar-Lunar looked 9-dayish.
I’ve got a very nice, but not 100% precise, fit to Solar with a 28-day sine plus a 9-day sine. Barring its 4 jumps of course. I don’t see any particular reason to guess it will be away-from-normal on T=384, and the 28+9 predicts Solar=44 then, with a +-5 (closer to +-4 or 3).
So we have a choice between:
- Ocean+Earth: 74-80, probably 77, guaranteed no demon
- Solar+Doom: [39,49]+[28,33] + maybe Solar spike + maybe Doom spike + maaaaybe Doom dip is probably 74, tiny chance of a demon, small chance of ritual failure, small chance of big success
The conservative choice is to just go with Ocean+Earth. But there is another option, of hoping for a Solar spike. These have been increasing in magnitude and the last one provided 20-25 extra mana. If Morgan can prepare the ritual and continue to monitor flows, he could check for whether Solar is significantly above baseline (we’d give him the decision procedure) and then either go ahead with the ritual or cancel.
I think there is a low chance of a spike, without further insights. Lower than 10%. Higher than 1, even 2%. So roughly 4+%, with a tiny helping of Doom spike, call it 5%. And even if there’s a spike, maybe it’s only 10-15 or 20-25 rather than something larger. Let’s say 0.75% chance of a large spike, 1.5% chance of a 20-25 spike, and 2.5% chance of a 10-15 spike.
My answer to Morgan is that he can have a guaranteed 74-80 mana, or a chance of 84-95, or a chance of 94-105, or a chance of (making this up) 104-130. I will ask at what chance he would rather each of the other alternatives, then convert that to elicited preference, multiply, add, compare, and give him either the Ocean+Earth combo or the Solar+Doom combo+procedure. If he “chooses” Solar+Doom and then balks at the procedure, I will relent and give him Ocean+Earth.