Here are my findings and plans, before looking at any comments:
Solar is on a 28-day cycle, on each day there are a few possible options based on the day number mod 28
Sometimes solar is randomly higher but this is rare
Solar has recently gone up in power by (at least?) 15
On day 384, solar will be very strong, I think minimum power would normally be 42, so I suspect minimum will now be 57
Lunar is directly related to Solar, a 100% negative correlation with the solar of 14 days previously, I think the linear transformation is 75 - Solar
On day 384, Lunar will be 16 (unless Lunar isn’t affected by the increase in solar, in which case it will be more, which would be sufficient, and better than doom)
Earth and Ocean are strongly negatively correlated
Flame is correlated with itself on a day-to-day basis but seems to be a random walk, difficult to predict into the future
Ash is entirely determined by the previous day’s flame mana
Doom is on an 8-day cycle, with high variance
Minimum Doom on day 384 will be 19, maximum will be 31
Seems like it’s on two 28 + 9 day cycles, or similar, but sometimes spikes 10-20 points for no apparent reason. Solar will be 44-ish barring any spikes which isn’t enough for solar + doom to do the job reliably.
Given this, Solar + Earth probably has a good chance, as does Solar + Ocean, both of which I think will be better than Earth + Ocean
UPDATE: I had my Doom plot wrong, Solar + Doom is still a good strategy, but Earth + Ocean is probably better
Further info: Flame is a biased random walk, each day it changes by a value greater than Floor(Flame/4) + 1, but I can’t see a further pattern to what is chosen. The residual looks a bit like an exponential distribution but the fit is terrible.
There’s no easy pattern to much of the rest of the randomness, I’m gonna guess it’s all some bamboozling combination of random integer generation
Here are my findings and plans, before looking at any comments:
Solar is on a 28-day cycle, on each day there are a few possible options based on the day number mod 28
Sometimes solar is randomly higher but this is rare
Solar has recently gone up in power by (at least?) 15
On day 384, solar will be very strong, I think minimum power would normally be 42, so I suspect minimum will now be 57
Lunar is directly related to Solar, a 100% negative correlation with the solar of 14 days previously, I think the linear transformation is 75 - Solar
On day 384, Lunar will be 16 (unless Lunar isn’t affected by the increase in solar, in which case it will be more, which would be sufficient, and better than doom)
Earth and Ocean are strongly negatively correlated
Flame is correlated with itself on a day-to-day basis but seems to be a random walk, difficult to predict into the future
Ash is entirely determined by the previous day’s flame mana
Doom is on an 8-day cycle, with high variance
Minimum Doom on day 384 will be 19, maximum will be 31
Spite is entirely deterministic on a 140 cycle
On day 384 spite will be 0
Therefore Doom + Solar is my strategy
Looks like I was slightly wrong about Solar
Seems like it’s on two 28 + 9 day cycles, or similar, but sometimes spikes 10-20 points for no apparent reason. Solar will be 44-ish barring any spikes which isn’t enough for solar + doom to do the job reliably.
Given this, Solar + Earth probably has a good chance, as does Solar + Ocean, both of which I think will be better than Earth + Ocean
UPDATE: I had my Doom plot wrong, Solar + Doom is still a good strategy, but Earth + Ocean is probably better
Further info: Flame is a biased random walk, each day it changes by a value greater than Floor(Flame/4) + 1, but I can’t see a further pattern to what is chosen. The residual looks a bit like an exponential distribution but the fit is terrible.
There’s no easy pattern to much of the rest of the randomness, I’m gonna guess it’s all some bamboozling combination of random integer generation