I don’t think there’s much mystery to Putin’s intent. Desired outcome is pro-Russia Ukraine, and chosen method is decapitation by rapid advance to Kyiv followed by regime change. Actions so far are consistent if resistance was expected to be (as many in fact expected) Crimea-level or Afghan-level.
Maybe. But my impression (admittedly not based on any deep understanding of the region) is that any chance of a pro-Russian government (as there sort of was 10 years ago) has been destroyed by Putin’s actions. Of course, it might be that Putin just didn’t/doesn’t realize this. But it could also be that Putin has bigger plans, hence the reason for worry even if you’re not in Russia or Ukraine.
I think you may underestimate the power of an oppressive regime.
If you kill all people who publicly oppose Putin, most of the remaining will follow their survival instinct and develop some version of Stockholm syndrome. For those who won’t, there is still the police and secret police to eliminate them later. And you can always resettle some people from Russia to Ukraine and vice versa.
I don’t think there’s much mystery to Putin’s intent. Desired outcome is pro-Russia Ukraine, and chosen method is decapitation by rapid advance to Kyiv followed by regime change. Actions so far are consistent if resistance was expected to be (as many in fact expected) Crimea-level or Afghan-level.
Maybe. But my impression (admittedly not based on any deep understanding of the region) is that any chance of a pro-Russian government (as there sort of was 10 years ago) has been destroyed by Putin’s actions. Of course, it might be that Putin just didn’t/doesn’t realize this. But it could also be that Putin has bigger plans, hence the reason for worry even if you’re not in Russia or Ukraine.
I think you may underestimate the power of an oppressive regime.
If you kill all people who publicly oppose Putin, most of the remaining will follow their survival instinct and develop some version of Stockholm syndrome. For those who won’t, there is still the police and secret police to eliminate them later. And you can always resettle some people from Russia to Ukraine and vice versa.