One of the worrying aspects is that the situation has not developed in the way many (most?) people expected earlier. (But note that I’m far from an expert on Russia, or Ukraine, or war, so maybe I have the wrong impression here...)
Before the conflict heated up, I and many other people expected that Russia would just try to grab the eastern part of Ukraine, where a good part of the population would welcome them. And Putin seemed to be following that script—support local insurgents (already done), then declare that their separatist regions are independent countries, then say you’re sending “peacekeeping” troops there at the request of these new independent countries—all seems designed to separate these parts from Ukraine, at which point these new “countries” ask to join Russia...
When there were reports of attacks further inside Ukraine, I wondered whether Ukraine has tried to stop this plan by attacking the Russians in the east, and that the Russians were simply neutralizing Ukrainian military assets that might be used against them.
But it’s now obvious that the Russian plan was always to conduct a more general invasion of Ukraine. A big reason for worry is that it’s hard to see what Putin is trying to accomplish by this, unless it’s part of some highly dangerous larger plan.
The other reason for worry is that some people in the West who ought to know better have advocated insanely reckless responses, such as sending NATO planes to shoot down Russian planes in Ukraine. It’s not hard to see the Russian response to that being to bomb the NATO air bases where these planes are based. NATO then responds by bombing Russian air bases… It probably doesn’t end well.
This is the funny thing where Putin may literally publish an essay on his desire to invade Ukraine… and yet many Western intellectuals will continue saying “no, that is not true, that is American propaganda, you are too smart to believe that aren’t you...”
Well, Putin saying that wasn’t an actual guarantee that he would act that way. Thinking he was just setting the stage for acceptance of a more modest acquisition wasn’t actually crazy, even if it turned out to be wrong.
I don’t think there’s much mystery to Putin’s intent. Desired outcome is pro-Russia Ukraine, and chosen method is decapitation by rapid advance to Kyiv followed by regime change. Actions so far are consistent if resistance was expected to be (as many in fact expected) Crimea-level or Afghan-level.
Maybe. But my impression (admittedly not based on any deep understanding of the region) is that any chance of a pro-Russian government (as there sort of was 10 years ago) has been destroyed by Putin’s actions. Of course, it might be that Putin just didn’t/doesn’t realize this. But it could also be that Putin has bigger plans, hence the reason for worry even if you’re not in Russia or Ukraine.
I think you may underestimate the power of an oppressive regime.
If you kill all people who publicly oppose Putin, most of the remaining will follow their survival instinct and develop some version of Stockholm syndrome. For those who won’t, there is still the police and secret police to eliminate them later. And you can always resettle some people from Russia to Ukraine and vice versa.
One of the worrying aspects is that the situation has not developed in the way many (most?) people expected earlier. (But note that I’m far from an expert on Russia, or Ukraine, or war, so maybe I have the wrong impression here...)
Before the conflict heated up, I and many other people expected that Russia would just try to grab the eastern part of Ukraine, where a good part of the population would welcome them. And Putin seemed to be following that script—support local insurgents (already done), then declare that their separatist regions are independent countries, then say you’re sending “peacekeeping” troops there at the request of these new independent countries—all seems designed to separate these parts from Ukraine, at which point these new “countries” ask to join Russia...
When there were reports of attacks further inside Ukraine, I wondered whether Ukraine has tried to stop this plan by attacking the Russians in the east, and that the Russians were simply neutralizing Ukrainian military assets that might be used against them.
But it’s now obvious that the Russian plan was always to conduct a more general invasion of Ukraine. A big reason for worry is that it’s hard to see what Putin is trying to accomplish by this, unless it’s part of some highly dangerous larger plan.
The other reason for worry is that some people in the West who ought to know better have advocated insanely reckless responses, such as sending NATO planes to shoot down Russian planes in Ukraine. It’s not hard to see the Russian response to that being to bomb the NATO air bases where these planes are based. NATO then responds by bombing Russian air bases… It probably doesn’t end well.
Actually, Putin made his plans quite public some time ago.
This is the funny thing where Putin may literally publish an essay on his desire to invade Ukraine… and yet many Western intellectuals will continue saying “no, that is not true, that is American propaganda, you are too smart to believe that aren’t you...”
Well, Putin saying that wasn’t an actual guarantee that he would act that way. Thinking he was just setting the stage for acceptance of a more modest acquisition wasn’t actually crazy, even if it turned out to be wrong.
This sounds alarming, yes.
I don’t think there’s much mystery to Putin’s intent. Desired outcome is pro-Russia Ukraine, and chosen method is decapitation by rapid advance to Kyiv followed by regime change. Actions so far are consistent if resistance was expected to be (as many in fact expected) Crimea-level or Afghan-level.
Maybe. But my impression (admittedly not based on any deep understanding of the region) is that any chance of a pro-Russian government (as there sort of was 10 years ago) has been destroyed by Putin’s actions. Of course, it might be that Putin just didn’t/doesn’t realize this. But it could also be that Putin has bigger plans, hence the reason for worry even if you’re not in Russia or Ukraine.
I think you may underestimate the power of an oppressive regime.
If you kill all people who publicly oppose Putin, most of the remaining will follow their survival instinct and develop some version of Stockholm syndrome. For those who won’t, there is still the police and secret police to eliminate them later. And you can always resettle some people from Russia to Ukraine and vice versa.