See, the problem is now that I’ve also internalized this (seemingly true) lesson, the +15% might double-boost my ass numbers.
But maybe if we accumulate enough lessons we can get increasingly close to the truth by adding these “higher order terms”?
I don’t think so—the error bars do not necessarily diminish. For example:
Ass number for drawing ability percentile: ~70%
Dunning Kruger correction: ~50%
Double-dip correction: ~65%
Did I do it right? I have no idea. Every step might have already been taken into account in the first asstimate. Every system-2 patch that we discover might have immediately patched system-1.
One (admittedly lazy) way out is to chuck all context-sensitive formal rules like ‘add/subtract X%’ and leave it entirely to system-1: play calibration games for skill-percentiles.
See, the problem is now that I’ve also internalized this (seemingly true) lesson, the +15% might double-boost my ass numbers.
But maybe if we accumulate enough lessons we can get increasingly close to the truth by adding these “higher order terms”?
I don’t think so—the error bars do not necessarily diminish. For example:
Ass number for drawing ability percentile: ~70%
Dunning Kruger correction: ~50%
Double-dip correction: ~65%
Did I do it right? I have no idea. Every step might have already been taken into account in the first asstimate. Every system-2 patch that we discover might have immediately patched system-1.
One (admittedly lazy) way out is to chuck all context-sensitive formal rules like ‘add/subtract X%’ and leave it entirely to system-1: play calibration games for skill-percentiles.