You’re saying that sometimes compensating for overconfidence means moving a probability further away from 50%? That it somes means moving a probability estimate closer to some sort of “base rate”? Interesting and worth talking about more, I think. For one thing it gets you right into the “reference class tennis” you’ve talked about elsewhere—which in itself deserves further discussion.
You’re saying that sometimes compensating for overconfidence means moving a probability further away from 50%? That it somes means moving a probability estimate closer to some sort of “base rate”? Interesting and worth talking about more, I think. For one thing it gets you right into the “reference class tennis” you’ve talked about elsewhere—which in itself deserves further discussion.
Yup.