I don’t think this really means anything without knowing the fraction infected. Robbio’s antibody testing a month ago showed 13-14% infected so naively this gives 1.4% IFR. Possibly some sampling bias though. On the other hand this is a small town and presumably larger towns / cities would expect higher rates.
I’m willing to accept that IFR might push a bit over 1% but that doesn’t overcome the need for a massive outbreak to happen across the whole US without significant action being taken to minimise the impact to get to 3M deaths.
Good point, thanks.
I don’t think this really means anything without knowing the fraction infected. Robbio’s antibody testing a month ago showed 13-14% infected so naively this gives 1.4% IFR. Possibly some sampling bias though. On the other hand this is a small town and presumably larger towns / cities would expect higher rates.
I’m willing to accept that IFR might push a bit over 1% but that doesn’t overcome the need for a massive outbreak to happen across the whole US without significant action being taken to minimise the impact to get to 3M deaths.