This is the general problem of a mixture of experts when all you have are the predictions but not the information on which the predictions are based (at least for the market). I don’t think there is a real answer to that until you input more information into the system.
What information do they have?
This is the general problem of a mixture of experts when all you have are the predictions but not the information on which the predictions are based (at least for the market). I don’t think there is a real answer to that until you input more information into the system.
We want P(side | I_them, I_me)
We have P(side|I_them), P(side|I_me)
The latter don’t give the former.