Note: if the market is hundreds of people, and it’s a market on which face comes up 50% of the time (not on which face will come up on a specific roll), and it only gets 50% odds on that being a particular number, then something unusual is happening. An efficient market under these circumstances should be very confident.
(I haven’t done any explicit calculations, but I’m reasonably confident.)
Unless only one roll of the die was seen by the hundreds of people, and it came up “3”.
Ah, sure. It would have been better of me to say “if the market has collectively observed hundreds of rolls”.