I think “mediocre” is a quite appropriate adjective when describing a thing that we had high hopes for, but now received evidence, according to which while the thing technically works, it performs worse than expected, and the most exciting use cases are not validated.
I indeed used a single example here, so the strength of the evidence is arguable, but I don’t see why this case should be an outlier. I could’ve searched for more, like this one, that is particularly bad:
In any case, you can consider this post my public prediction that other policy prediction markets would also follow a similar thread.
I think “mediocre” is a quite appropriate adjective when describing a thing that we had high hopes for, but now received evidence, according to which while the thing technically works, it performs worse than expected, and the most exciting use cases are not validated.
I indeed used a single example here, so the strength of the evidence is arguable, but I don’t see why this case should be an outlier. I could’ve searched for more, like this one, that is particularly bad:
In any case, you can consider this post my public prediction that other policy prediction markets would also follow a similar thread.