It’s funny: I also guessed 70%. Specifically, I guessed that 70% of the places benefited which is not the same as lsusr’s prediction but the same as Ben’s. I didn’t think of a confidence in this estimate. For lack of time, I didn’t do an elaborate analysis but followed the intuition that when there are many data points some are bound to benefit and some not to. As the reforms generally seem to be seen as positive I rounded up to 70%.
I think lsusr’s point that measuring success by GDP obscures the local effects and esp. the GDP/person might tell a different story.
It’s funny: I also guessed 70%. Specifically, I guessed that 70% of the places benefited which is not the same as lsusr’s prediction but the same as Ben’s. I didn’t think of a confidence in this estimate. For lack of time, I didn’t do an elaborate analysis but followed the intuition that when there are many data points some are bound to benefit and some not to. As the reforms generally seem to be seen as positive I rounded up to 70%.
I think lsusr’s point that measuring success by GDP obscures the local effects and esp. the GDP/person might tell a different story.