Do we have a concise time-range-line for progress of infection in an individual? Something like (note: numbers made up, I’m looking for better ones):
0 - contact with source of infection.
2-5 days—virus replicated enough to be contagious
4-6 days—testing would show positive
8-15 days—symptoms begin
12-20 days—recovery or death
15-30 days—no longer contagious
Models come out VERY different depending on the distribution of timings you assign to these points. Specifically, the time from contagion-capable to detection-and-isolation is the difference between hundreds of already-infected and tens of thousands.
Do we have a concise time-range-line for progress of infection in an individual? Something like (note: numbers made up, I’m looking for better ones):
0 - contact with source of infection.
2-5 days—virus replicated enough to be contagious
4-6 days—testing would show positive
8-15 days—symptoms begin
12-20 days—recovery or death
15-30 days—no longer contagious
Models come out VERY different depending on the distribution of timings you assign to these points. Specifically, the time from contagion-capable to detection-and-isolation is the difference between hundreds of already-infected and tens of thousands.