You can buy nasal sprays over-the-counter, while I can’t think of a single injectable medicine that you can buy legally without a prescription. I don’t think the “stab people in the arm” argument is very strong.
Would you like to make a friendly wager? (Either Dentin, or johnswentworth, or anyone else making their own vaccine). We can do 50⁄50, since its in between our estimates. If you have two positive back-to-back anti-body tests within 2 months, you win (assuming you don’t actually contract covid, which I trust you’ll be honest here). If not, I win. To start off with, I’m willing to put down $100, but happy to go up or down.
My estimate for whether or not I would test positive on a blood test was only about 50%, since blood isn’t the primary place that the response is generated. I’m already betting a substantial amount of money (peptide purchases and equipment) that this will be helpful, and I see no reason to throw an additional $50 on a break-even bet here.
I would, however, be happy to commit to sharing results, whether they be positive or negative.
… and now it occurs to me that if Lesswrong had a ‘public precommitments’ feature, I would totally use it.
You can buy nasal sprays over-the-counter, while I can’t think of a single injectable medicine that you can buy legally without a prescription. I don’t think the “stab people in the arm” argument is very strong.
Would you like to make a friendly wager? (Either Dentin, or johnswentworth, or anyone else making their own vaccine). We can do 50⁄50, since its in between our estimates. If you have two positive back-to-back anti-body tests within 2 months, you win (assuming you don’t actually contract covid, which I trust you’ll be honest here). If not, I win. To start off with, I’m willing to put down $100, but happy to go up or down.
I wouldn’t take 50⁄50. I do think it’s much more likely than that to induce mucus antibodies, but not blood antibodies. I would take 3:1 odds.
My estimate for whether or not I would test positive on a blood test was only about 50%, since blood isn’t the primary place that the response is generated. I’m already betting a substantial amount of money (peptide purchases and equipment) that this will be helpful, and I see no reason to throw an additional $50 on a break-even bet here.
I would, however, be happy to commit to sharing results, whether they be positive or negative.
… and now it occurs to me that if Lesswrong had a ‘public precommitments’ feature, I would totally use it.