I think the chances of side effects as serious as COVID are much lower than that. I also think the chances of success are higher, but on that front it probably makes sense for you to wait a few weeks at least until I, and possibly others, have some test results.
But my biggest difference from this calculation is that I’d account for the benefits of not-having-to-try-hard-to-avoid-COVID. The chance of catching it is only low if you avoid going out and socializing; with a successful vaccine, you can have a low chance of catching it without paying that cost.
So that’s how my calculation would differ. On a meta level:
So I do not think, given my beliefs, that I should recommend it. Is this reasoning broadly correct?
… your reasoning is reasonable, and I do not think anyone should defer to my reasoning on this subject; I do not have enough legible expertise to merit that. Upvote for writing out the calculation.
I do not know the baseline for chances of a side effect in a new peptide vaccine. I expect that if side effects anywhere near as bad as COVID happened with any non-negligible rate, then I would have heard about it already, but I don’t have numbers or data on it.
I think the chances of side effects as serious as COVID are much lower than that. I also think the chances of success are higher, but on that front it probably makes sense for you to wait a few weeks at least until I, and possibly others, have some test results.
But my biggest difference from this calculation is that I’d account for the benefits of not-having-to-try-hard-to-avoid-COVID. The chance of catching it is only low if you avoid going out and socializing; with a successful vaccine, you can have a low chance of catching it without paying that cost.
So that’s how my calculation would differ. On a meta level:
… your reasoning is reasonable, and I do not think anyone should defer to my reasoning on this subject; I do not have enough legible expertise to merit that. Upvote for writing out the calculation.
I do not know the baseline for chances of a side effect in a new peptide vaccine. I expect that if side effects anywhere near as bad as COVID happened with any non-negligible rate, then I would have heard about it already, but I don’t have numbers or data on it.