According to some Western analysis Jang Song-thaek was the most powerful person in the North Korean elite ten years ago. He died five years ago. In North Korean politics there are strong internal tension that get powerful people in the elite killed when they aren’t careful with their decision.
To stay in favor with the North Korean army, North Korean leaders had to have a military-first policy for a while now where basically a lot of the resources of the country get drained by buying the loyalty of the North Korean military.
Proposing to dearm can be suicidal for North Korean elites.
The only way to get North Korea to dearm would be to get a stronger power center outside of the North Korean military in the North Korean elite.
The way to have such a power center would be to have powerful business people in North Korea. Especially, business people who depend on international trade could support a process of disarmament.
We should hope that there a deal between the Trump administration and North Korea that even if it doesn’t make North Korea give up nukes sets North Korea up for enough economic growth that justifies the policy of being more friendly and that produces a powerful business class in North Korea.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita wrote a lot of great things about how it’s not useful to treat an dictatorship as a single agent but important to look at the incentives of it’s power centers.
According to some Western analysis Jang Song-thaek was the most powerful person in the North Korean elite ten years ago. He died five years ago. In North Korean politics there are strong internal tension that get powerful people in the elite killed when they aren’t careful with their decision.
To stay in favor with the North Korean army, North Korean leaders had to have a military-first policy for a while now where basically a lot of the resources of the country get drained by buying the loyalty of the North Korean military.
Proposing to dearm can be suicidal for North Korean elites.
The only way to get North Korea to dearm would be to get a stronger power center outside of the North Korean military in the North Korean elite.
The way to have such a power center would be to have powerful business people in North Korea. Especially, business people who depend on international trade could support a process of disarmament.
We should hope that there a deal between the Trump administration and North Korea that even if it doesn’t make North Korea give up nukes sets North Korea up for enough economic growth that justifies the policy of being more friendly and that produces a powerful business class in North Korea.
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita wrote a lot of great things about how it’s not useful to treat an dictatorship as a single agent but important to look at the incentives of it’s power centers.