I think cutting the IFR by 25 on the basis of one study is a mistake, the chance of the study being fatally flawed is greater than 1 in 25. On the other hand 0.5% is overall CFR and would be lower for young people.
I think it’s hard to cut risk of long term effects by more than a factor of 10 from published estimates. Note there is evidence of long term effects contrary to your claim, i.e. studies that do 6 week follow ups and find people still with some symptom. This isn’t 6 months but is still surprisingly long and should shift our belief about 6 months at least somewhat. Also novel disease that attacks many parts of the body is some evidence. I agree the evidence is exaggerated to scare us but it feels like a different situation from reinfection where it actually is almost impossible to find instances except when immunocompromised.
But I think perhaps the most important is that even young people are currently limiting their activities in many undesirable ways in accordance with local government ordinances (which apply equally to old and young). Vaccination allows one to end or partially end these limitations—even if not in a legal sense, probably at least in a moral sense.
I also think you are probably overestimating vaccine risks (the main risk is that its effectiveness wanes, and that it interferes with future antibody responses from similar vaccines; not that you’ll get horrible side effects) but that isn’t necessary to explain why people want the vaccine now.
Have you tried googling yourself and were unable to find them? (Sorry that I’m too lazy to re-look them up myself, but given that LW is mostly leisure for me I don’t feel like doing it, and I’d be somewhat surprised if you googled for stuff and didn’t find it.)
Ha, I understand your laziness because I’m at least as lazy. Separating clickbait from quality information is too much work for my liking and so I’m crowdsourcing that classification here.
You could look at papers published on medrxiv rather than news articles, which would resolve the clickbait issue, though you’d still have to assess the study quality.
Mo Bamba (NBA) and Cody Garbrandt (UFC) are both pro athletes who are still out of commission months later. I found this looking for NBA information, and only about 50 NBA players have gotten Covid, so this suggests at least 2% chance of pretty bad long term symptoms.
I think cutting the IFR by 25 on the basis of one study is a mistake, the chance of the study being fatally flawed is greater than 1 in 25. On the other hand 0.5% is overall CFR and would be lower for young people.
I think it’s hard to cut risk of long term effects by more than a factor of 10 from published estimates. Note there is evidence of long term effects contrary to your claim, i.e. studies that do 6 week follow ups and find people still with some symptom. This isn’t 6 months but is still surprisingly long and should shift our belief about 6 months at least somewhat. Also novel disease that attacks many parts of the body is some evidence. I agree the evidence is exaggerated to scare us but it feels like a different situation from reinfection where it actually is almost impossible to find instances except when immunocompromised.
But I think perhaps the most important is that even young people are currently limiting their activities in many undesirable ways in accordance with local government ordinances (which apply equally to old and young). Vaccination allows one to end or partially end these limitations—even if not in a legal sense, probably at least in a moral sense.
I also think you are probably overestimating vaccine risks (the main risk is that its effectiveness wanes, and that it interferes with future antibody responses from similar vaccines; not that you’ll get horrible side effects) but that isn’t necessary to explain why people want the vaccine now.
Got any links?
Have you tried googling yourself and were unable to find them? (Sorry that I’m too lazy to re-look them up myself, but given that LW is mostly leisure for me I don’t feel like doing it, and I’d be somewhat surprised if you googled for stuff and didn’t find it.)
Ha, I understand your laziness because I’m at least as lazy. Separating clickbait from quality information is too much work for my liking and so I’m crowdsourcing that classification here.
You could look at papers published on medrxiv rather than news articles, which would resolve the clickbait issue, though you’d still have to assess the study quality.
Mo Bamba (NBA) and Cody Garbrandt (UFC) are both pro athletes who are still out of commission months later. I found this looking for NBA information, and only about 50 NBA players have gotten Covid, so this suggests at least 2% chance of pretty bad long term symptoms.