I’ve seen this advice / philosophical point a few times (and I mostly agree with it), but I don’t feel like I have a complete understanding of it. Specifically, when does this not apply?
For instance, coronavirus: to me, this doesn’t “add up to normality” and I’m trying to sort out how it’s an exception. As soon as we heard about the coronavirus, the correct action was to take prep advice seriously and go prepare; and governments moved far too slowly on updating their recommendations; etc. Life after coronavirus is super different than life before. If you were reciting “it all adds up to normality” while reading about corona, you’d probably miss some important opportunities to take quick action.
My guess is that the rule is not supposed to apply to coronavirus (perhaps it’s too object-level?) but I don’t exactly understand why not.
I think khafra and Isnasene make good points about not applying this in cases where the plane shows signs of actually dropping and you’re updating on that. (In this case, the signs would be watching people you respect tell you to start prepping immediately- act on the warning lights in the cockpit rather than waiting for the engines to fail.)
The rule might fail the covid test, but still be the correct tradeoff. Also, even though the mainstream moved relatively slowly about covid, you would not reduce your risk that much by being more vigilant than them. They were still pretty fast.
I have to disagree with you there. Thanks to my friends’ knowledge, I stopped my parents from taking a cross-country flight in early March, before much of the media reported that there was any real danger in doing so. You can’t wave off the value of truly thinking through things.
But don’t confuse “my model is changing” with “the world is changing”, even when both are happening simultaneously. That’s my point.
I’ve seen this advice / philosophical point a few times (and I mostly agree with it), but I don’t feel like I have a complete understanding of it. Specifically, when does this not apply?
For instance, coronavirus: to me, this doesn’t “add up to normality” and I’m trying to sort out how it’s an exception. As soon as we heard about the coronavirus, the correct action was to take prep advice seriously and go prepare; and governments moved far too slowly on updating their recommendations; etc. Life after coronavirus is super different than life before. If you were reciting “it all adds up to normality” while reading about corona, you’d probably miss some important opportunities to take quick action.
My guess is that the rule is not supposed to apply to coronavirus (perhaps it’s too object-level?) but I don’t exactly understand why not.
I think khafra and Isnasene make good points about not applying this in cases where the plane shows signs of actually dropping and you’re updating on that. (In this case, the signs would be watching people you respect tell you to start prepping immediately- act on the warning lights in the cockpit rather than waiting for the engines to fail.)
The rule might fail the covid test, but still be the correct tradeoff. Also, even though the mainstream moved relatively slowly about covid, you would not reduce your risk that much by being more vigilant than them. They were still pretty fast.
I have to disagree with you there. Thanks to my friends’ knowledge, I stopped my parents from taking a cross-country flight in early March, before much of the media reported that there was any real danger in doing so. You can’t wave off the value of truly thinking through things.
But don’t confuse “my model is changing” with “the world is changing”, even when both are happening simultaneously. That’s my point.