Rationale for considering Sollecito more likely than Knox: They’re linked quite closely here, but there’s enough confusion surrounding the case that I can’t take that completely for granted. That being the case, it’s unlikely-but-possible that one of Knox or Sollecito was directly involved while the other wasn’t, and my prior for a male committing a violent rape/murder is a lot higher than for a female.
Guede is clearly guilty. He fled town immediately after the murder. His DNA was found in the victim’s body, by far the most difficult-to-contaminate piece of DNA evidence in the case, making it extremely likely he’s the rapist. Very low prior on a rape/murder being committed by separate parties.
The inconsistencies in Knox and Sollecito’s stories are definitely worth paying attention to. But there are several factors diluting their importance:
I already had a reasonably high prior on the prevalence of brutality and corruption in Italian police forces. This doesn’t leave me with much faith in their competence, especially when it comes to interrogations.
It’s known that Knox and Sollecito were intoxicated with alcohol and marijuana at the time. I don’t know how many of you have ever been thoroughly trashed on this duo (I’m guessing the number is disproportionately low here), but memories formed under such circumstances are very fragile. I’ve personally experienced disagreements provoked by divergent recollections of events that had transpired an hour previously. Given that sort of influence, I know I would have a damn hard time reconstructing a coherent narrative of the night’s events after the brutal murder of my roommate and several days of interrogation by Italian police.
The DNA evidence against Knox and Sollecito is also worth paying attention to, and is in fact the primary reason my estimate on their guilt is as high as it is. However, this is partially mitigated by a glaring problem with the case: Most of the evidence was collected before Guede was a suspect. If Guede had been identified from the start, the Knox-Sollecito hypothesis may not have been quite so “privileged”. IIRC, the DNA of four unidentified individuals was also found on the knife. Plus the doubt wrt the knife matching the wounds. Plus the odds that Sollecito would take a murder weapon back to his apartment and put it away. My generally unfavorable prior wrt Italy’s justice system also adds a fair amount of room for uncertainty here.
The fact that Guede wasn’t initially identified also provides the police with a mild motive for contaminating the evidence. It’s unlikely that such an action would be detected. That said, my prior for this sort of action is pretty low.
Finally, we come to the elephant in the case: The hypothesis that the murder was committed by three people working together, as the result of a sex game gone bad. This reads like a parody of a flailing prosecutor. Contrast prior with that for a “normal” rape/murder… ouch. And it just so happens that the one party implicated by actual, solid evidence is the one party who fled after the crime.
The rationale for my 80% chance of agreement with komponisto is mostly based on “metagaming” his position. He admits to having a “rather strong” opinion on the case, and it seems much, much harder to form a strong opinion in favor of guilt as opposed to innocence in this case. My estimate would be higher, but given how asymmetrical this case appears to me, I can’t rule out “initial counterintuitiveness” and/or extra evidence as a possible motivation for posting this in the first place.
I’ll read the other comments and post my update later today.
I’ve read the other comments, and for the most part, my estimates haven’t moved. However, this remark by Psychohistorian jumped out at me:
The fact that the prosecutor is under investigation for previously using crazy psychotic hypersexual homicidal maniac theories without basis does a lot to explain how the prosecutors ended up with such a crazy theory.
Wow, I definitely missed this when I read about the case. The prosecution’s theory was already setting off alarm bells. If this is true, that shaves another percentage point or two off of my estimate of guilt for K+S.
In general, I’m a bit surprised how much faith some commenters have in their causal understanding of human behavior and psychology, when that understanding seems to be derived from a process of imagining what they would do in those circumstances. I know that I would certainly try like hell to maintain a coherent account of the night’s events, but taking this kind of interpersonal analogy for granted when assessing such a delicate situation strikes me as willingly throwing oneself into the arms of the typical mind fallacy.
Some commenters seem particularly focused on some of the more arcane details of the case, e.g., the toilet. How much can you really infer from this sort of thing? I get the distinct impression that people are falling back on intuitions gleaned from detective shows and mystery novels, which by construction tend to involve cases that hinge on the little things.
The estimates I came up with were a lot less confident than yours, but on reading yours they seem more like my intuition. I think I got burned on the calibration test and now I’m avoiding extremes.
The facts as presented are not accurate so that is throwing off your calculation.
For example, when discounting Knox’s statement to the police most people consider that it was after a length interrogation but the truth is the questioning lasted one hour. They accept that Knox was mistreated but all the evidence points to them treating her toughly but as expected for a murder suspect. What is never mentioned in the interrogation story is that Sollecito told the police Knox was not with him the night of the murder and that he lied at Knox’s request. This information was in fact what led to Knox placing herself at the crime and accusing an innocent man. It should also be noted that this is the second innocent black man Knox had tried to implicate.
Also missing from consideration is the fact that Luminol revealed footprints matching both Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito’s feet in the corridor between Knox’s room and the victim’s room and nowhere in the house. The prosecution advanced the theory that these were made by the accused in the victim’s blood while the defense presented the argument that these could have been made at a different time. When one of the footprints contained both Knox and victim’s DNA the expert argued independent deposit.
These are not equivalent explanations. The defense position requires that there be a reason for Knox and Sollecito to have blood on their feet. No such reason was ever given but since they had dated for less than two weeks if such an event had occurred it certainly would have been fresh in everyone’s memory. So not only does it require that there be an occurrence unrelated to the murder where these footprints were made but further both Meredith and Amanda had to deposit DNA presumably by spitting of some kind of nasal discharge in the exact same spot. We should also add a reason for why these prints only appear between the victim’s room and Knox’s room and not in the rest of the corridor. That or we accept the obvious that they were made the night of the murder in the victim’s blood.
Then there is a series of other evidence missing from the Wikipedia article. No mention of Knox lying to the police to delay the discovery of the body. No mention of Knox going from a state of joking around to hitting herself repeatedly when asked to provide her fingerprints for exclusionary purposes. No mention of Knox’s story not matching the evidence of what happened November 2. So yes if you remove all the evidence and change what you even bother to mention then Knox and Sollecito are innocent but that is not reality. If you want the real evidence I would suggest you read here http://themurderofmeredithkercher.com/ everything is sourced to primary sources and there is next to no opinion. Just the facts. See if you still feel the calculation comes out as not guilty.
I began with zero familiarity with the case.
Knox: 8%
Sollecito: 10%
Guede: 95%
Agree with komponisto: 80%
Rationale for considering Sollecito more likely than Knox: They’re linked quite closely here, but there’s enough confusion surrounding the case that I can’t take that completely for granted. That being the case, it’s unlikely-but-possible that one of Knox or Sollecito was directly involved while the other wasn’t, and my prior for a male committing a violent rape/murder is a lot higher than for a female.
Guede is clearly guilty. He fled town immediately after the murder. His DNA was found in the victim’s body, by far the most difficult-to-contaminate piece of DNA evidence in the case, making it extremely likely he’s the rapist. Very low prior on a rape/murder being committed by separate parties.
The inconsistencies in Knox and Sollecito’s stories are definitely worth paying attention to. But there are several factors diluting their importance:
I already had a reasonably high prior on the prevalence of brutality and corruption in Italian police forces. This doesn’t leave me with much faith in their competence, especially when it comes to interrogations.
It’s known that Knox and Sollecito were intoxicated with alcohol and marijuana at the time. I don’t know how many of you have ever been thoroughly trashed on this duo (I’m guessing the number is disproportionately low here), but memories formed under such circumstances are very fragile. I’ve personally experienced disagreements provoked by divergent recollections of events that had transpired an hour previously. Given that sort of influence, I know I would have a damn hard time reconstructing a coherent narrative of the night’s events after the brutal murder of my roommate and several days of interrogation by Italian police.
The DNA evidence against Knox and Sollecito is also worth paying attention to, and is in fact the primary reason my estimate on their guilt is as high as it is. However, this is partially mitigated by a glaring problem with the case: Most of the evidence was collected before Guede was a suspect. If Guede had been identified from the start, the Knox-Sollecito hypothesis may not have been quite so “privileged”. IIRC, the DNA of four unidentified individuals was also found on the knife. Plus the doubt wrt the knife matching the wounds. Plus the odds that Sollecito would take a murder weapon back to his apartment and put it away. My generally unfavorable prior wrt Italy’s justice system also adds a fair amount of room for uncertainty here.
The fact that Guede wasn’t initially identified also provides the police with a mild motive for contaminating the evidence. It’s unlikely that such an action would be detected. That said, my prior for this sort of action is pretty low.
Finally, we come to the elephant in the case: The hypothesis that the murder was committed by three people working together, as the result of a sex game gone bad. This reads like a parody of a flailing prosecutor. Contrast prior with that for a “normal” rape/murder… ouch. And it just so happens that the one party implicated by actual, solid evidence is the one party who fled after the crime.
The rationale for my 80% chance of agreement with komponisto is mostly based on “metagaming” his position. He admits to having a “rather strong” opinion on the case, and it seems much, much harder to form a strong opinion in favor of guilt as opposed to innocence in this case. My estimate would be higher, but given how asymmetrical this case appears to me, I can’t rule out “initial counterintuitiveness” and/or extra evidence as a possible motivation for posting this in the first place.
I’ll read the other comments and post my update later today.
I’ve read the other comments, and for the most part, my estimates haven’t moved. However, this remark by Psychohistorian jumped out at me:
Wow, I definitely missed this when I read about the case. The prosecution’s theory was already setting off alarm bells. If this is true, that shaves another percentage point or two off of my estimate of guilt for K+S.
In general, I’m a bit surprised how much faith some commenters have in their causal understanding of human behavior and psychology, when that understanding seems to be derived from a process of imagining what they would do in those circumstances. I know that I would certainly try like hell to maintain a coherent account of the night’s events, but taking this kind of interpersonal analogy for granted when assessing such a delicate situation strikes me as willingly throwing oneself into the arms of the typical mind fallacy.
Some commenters seem particularly focused on some of the more arcane details of the case, e.g., the toilet. How much can you really infer from this sort of thing? I get the distinct impression that people are falling back on intuitions gleaned from detective shows and mystery novels, which by construction tend to involve cases that hinge on the little things.
The estimates I came up with were a lot less confident than yours, but on reading yours they seem more like my intuition. I think I got burned on the calibration test and now I’m avoiding extremes.
The facts as presented are not accurate so that is throwing off your calculation.
For example, when discounting Knox’s statement to the police most people consider that it was after a length interrogation but the truth is the questioning lasted one hour. They accept that Knox was mistreated but all the evidence points to them treating her toughly but as expected for a murder suspect. What is never mentioned in the interrogation story is that Sollecito told the police Knox was not with him the night of the murder and that he lied at Knox’s request. This information was in fact what led to Knox placing herself at the crime and accusing an innocent man. It should also be noted that this is the second innocent black man Knox had tried to implicate.
Also missing from consideration is the fact that Luminol revealed footprints matching both Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito’s feet in the corridor between Knox’s room and the victim’s room and nowhere in the house. The prosecution advanced the theory that these were made by the accused in the victim’s blood while the defense presented the argument that these could have been made at a different time. When one of the footprints contained both Knox and victim’s DNA the expert argued independent deposit.
These are not equivalent explanations. The defense position requires that there be a reason for Knox and Sollecito to have blood on their feet. No such reason was ever given but since they had dated for less than two weeks if such an event had occurred it certainly would have been fresh in everyone’s memory. So not only does it require that there be an occurrence unrelated to the murder where these footprints were made but further both Meredith and Amanda had to deposit DNA presumably by spitting of some kind of nasal discharge in the exact same spot. We should also add a reason for why these prints only appear between the victim’s room and Knox’s room and not in the rest of the corridor. That or we accept the obvious that they were made the night of the murder in the victim’s blood.
Then there is a series of other evidence missing from the Wikipedia article. No mention of Knox lying to the police to delay the discovery of the body. No mention of Knox going from a state of joking around to hitting herself repeatedly when asked to provide her fingerprints for exclusionary purposes. No mention of Knox’s story not matching the evidence of what happened November 2. So yes if you remove all the evidence and change what you even bother to mention then Knox and Sollecito are innocent but that is not reality. If you want the real evidence I would suggest you read here http://themurderofmeredithkercher.com/ everything is sourced to primary sources and there is next to no opinion. Just the facts. See if you still feel the calculation comes out as not guilty.