I find the prospect of multiple independent mesa-optimizers inside of the same system relatively unlikely.
I think Jesse was just claiming that it’s more likely that everyone uses an architecture especially prone to mesa optimization. This means that (if multiple people train that architecture from scratch) the world is likely to end up with many different mesa optimizers in it (each localised to a single system). Because of the random nature of mesa optimization, they may all have very different goals.
I think Jesse was just claiming that it’s more likely that everyone uses an architecture especially prone to mesa optimization. This means that (if multiple people train that architecture from scratch) the world is likely to end up with many different mesa optimizers in it (each localised to a single system). Because of the random nature of mesa optimization, they may all have very different goals.
I’m not sure if that’s true—see my comments here and here.