(1) The most crucial part of this design is the “Modeling AI Predictive Power” section. This is how we represent the AI’s massive advantage in predictive power. However, this comes at the cost of tripling the amount of time the game takes to play. Can you think of a better way to do this?
This is an interesting idea, especially the element of randomness, however I agree that it massively slows down the game and also I am concerned about realism—being able to predict actions with a high degree of accuracy is really hard and I think an AI this powerful would be capable of just conquering the world through nanotech or other advanced technology.
Having said that, the predictive power could largely come through the AI hacking into enemy communication networks, rather than running simulations, which I think is a lot more plausible. In this case, you could preserve the infomation advantage by having troop positions unknown, rather than movements. This again is entirely realistic, a phenomenon in modern warfare is an ‘empty battlefield’ because everyone is hiding. A simple mechanism would be that each player has, say, a 20% chance of knowing where each foreign unit is, while the AI has an 80% chance. A more complex rule-set would involve stealth level (nuclear submarines are very stealthy, aircraft carriers not so much) and spies, scouts, sonar etc, where the AI gets a massive spying bonus due to hacking.
I would be inclined to pursue an arms-race mechanic—each player can pursue technologies in secret which individually are highly beneficial (e.g. driverless cars increase economy) but provide incremental progress towards AI/nanotech/biotech. Anyone who creates AIs of a high level gets a large advantage, but there is a chance that they cause a hard-takeoff, instantly ending the game. In terms of scoring, perhaps different factions wish to program different utility functions e.g. coherent extrapolated volition of humanity/ensure american hegemony/operate according to the principles of my religion. Factions with similar goals (such as human hedonism and hedonism for all sentient life) get a reasonably large number of points if the other faction wins. AIs can also be programmed with compromise goals e.g. hedonism for my citizens, religious principles for yours, which leads to a prisoners dilemma situation. If the friendliness screws up, everyone looses.
The general idea is that everyone wants to progress slowly and carefully to sort of friendliness first, but if you take a slightly larger risk and get there first you can impose your utility function.
Of course, while its tempting to add many rules, its probably best to stick with diplomacy + the bare minimum, at least at first.
Having said that, the predictive power could largely come through the AI hacking into enemy communication networks, rather than running simulations, which I think is a lot more plausible.
You can also have a game system with random components, which an AI can predict. Even combat could work that way: you win if attack + (number of heads in five coin flips) > defense, and the AI can predict some of the flips.
Hmm, I wonder if there could be an interesting way of turning this into a good game mechanic for a board game … for example you have units (cards) with strength, and on each one you put a face-down token that may or may not have a “+1” on it. During a combat, reveal all tokens and apply their bonus, losers die/get damage as usual, survivors get new tokens. And of course some actions allow looking at tokens.
This is an interesting idea, especially the element of randomness, however I agree that it massively slows down the game and also I am concerned about realism—being able to predict actions with a high degree of accuracy is really hard and I think an AI this powerful would be capable of just conquering the world through nanotech or other advanced technology.
Having said that, the predictive power could largely come through the AI hacking into enemy communication networks, rather than running simulations, which I think is a lot more plausible. In this case, you could preserve the infomation advantage by having troop positions unknown, rather than movements. This again is entirely realistic, a phenomenon in modern warfare is an ‘empty battlefield’ because everyone is hiding. A simple mechanism would be that each player has, say, a 20% chance of knowing where each foreign unit is, while the AI has an 80% chance. A more complex rule-set would involve stealth level (nuclear submarines are very stealthy, aircraft carriers not so much) and spies, scouts, sonar etc, where the AI gets a massive spying bonus due to hacking.
I would be inclined to pursue an arms-race mechanic—each player can pursue technologies in secret which individually are highly beneficial (e.g. driverless cars increase economy) but provide incremental progress towards AI/nanotech/biotech. Anyone who creates AIs of a high level gets a large advantage, but there is a chance that they cause a hard-takeoff, instantly ending the game. In terms of scoring, perhaps different factions wish to program different utility functions e.g. coherent extrapolated volition of humanity/ensure american hegemony/operate according to the principles of my religion. Factions with similar goals (such as human hedonism and hedonism for all sentient life) get a reasonably large number of points if the other faction wins. AIs can also be programmed with compromise goals e.g. hedonism for my citizens, religious principles for yours, which leads to a prisoners dilemma situation. If the friendliness screws up, everyone looses.
The general idea is that everyone wants to progress slowly and carefully to sort of friendliness first, but if you take a slightly larger risk and get there first you can impose your utility function.
Of course, while its tempting to add many rules, its probably best to stick with diplomacy + the bare minimum, at least at first.
You can also have a game system with random components, which an AI can predict. Even combat could work that way: you win if attack + (number of heads in five coin flips) > defense, and the AI can predict some of the flips.
Hmm, I wonder if there could be an interesting way of turning this into a good game mechanic for a board game … for example you have units (cards) with strength, and on each one you put a face-down token that may or may not have a “+1” on it. During a combat, reveal all tokens and apply their bonus, losers die/get damage as usual, survivors get new tokens. And of course some actions allow looking at tokens.