If he had offered say a $20 bet no one would have batted an eye. The issue was purely the size of the offer since it reminded a lot of viewers at how high Romney’s income is compared to theirs. People care to a large extent about identifying with politicians.Since the vast majority of the population doesn’t care about prediction markets and hasn’t even heard of them, they don’t care about that issue. (For what it is worth, when I first heard about this I had to think a minute about why it might be considered a gaffe.)
I felt the same, and came to the same conclusion you did. I can see the clown suit solution becoming a gaffe, as well; many demographics didn’t like the way GWB came across as fratboyish, and bets with reputation-harming terms have that association.
Since a presidential candidate who wins will be in a position to influence the results of policy decisions, I don’t think their participation in futarchy-style bets would signal well, either. But there’s gotta be some politically-correct way for them to put their money where their mouth is...
Having said it, I think he would have done better going on like this:
$10 thousand—hey, why not a million? Our entire campaign funds? As long as I’d be just taking your money, might as well go big! But seriously. You wouldn’t—shouldn’t—take that bet for a cent, because you’d lose.
I actually disagree with this. While flaunting wealth might itself be off-putting, it does at least imply that the person is conscious of how much wealthier they are than others. But the criticism of Romney is just the opposite: that it shows him as “out of touch”, i.e. unaware of the vast difference in wealth between him and the average voter. The fact that the bet offer is seen as an unconscious slip is in fact integral to why it is supposedly damaging: it revealed that he doesn’t think of $10,000 as a lot of money. (Rather like how Marie Antoinette supposedly failed to realize that cake might be less accessible to her subjects than herself.)
Mind you, I think this criticism is entirely absurd and facepalm-inducing: apparently the ability to (deceptively) signal to the public that one is an “ordinary person” is a more important quality for a president than being the type of person who puts their money where their mouth is.
Why the hell would you want an ordinary person in charge of the country anyway? You swear at ordinary people when they drive badly; you don’t want a President like that!
(or, “I think that the signal ‘ordinary person here!’ is grossly overweighted when it comes to politics”)
Bill Clinton has plenty of money now, but I don’t think he ever had significant wealth prior to becoming president; his entire career was spent in politics. Hillary made a good living as a lawyer, but not enough that $10k would have been unimportant to them.
If he had offered say a $20 bet no one would have batted an eye. The issue was purely the size of the offer since it reminded a lot of viewers at how high Romney’s income is compared to theirs. People care to a large extent about identifying with politicians.Since the vast majority of the population doesn’t care about prediction markets and hasn’t even heard of them, they don’t care about that issue. (For what it is worth, when I first heard about this I had to think a minute about why it might be considered a gaffe.)
I felt the same, and came to the same conclusion you did. I can see the clown suit solution becoming a gaffe, as well; many demographics didn’t like the way GWB came across as fratboyish, and bets with reputation-harming terms have that association.
Since a presidential candidate who wins will be in a position to influence the results of policy decisions, I don’t think their participation in futarchy-style bets would signal well, either. But there’s gotta be some politically-correct way for them to put their money where their mouth is...
Having said it, I think he would have done better going on like this:
$10 thousand—hey, why not a million? Our entire campaign funds? As long as I’d be just taking your money, might as well go big! But seriously. You wouldn’t—shouldn’t—take that bet for a cent, because you’d lose.
But… when was the last time we had a President who couldn’t afford to lose a $10K bet?
The question isn’t as much whether he’s wealthy, it’s more whether he’s seen as flaunting his wealth.
I actually disagree with this. While flaunting wealth might itself be off-putting, it does at least imply that the person is conscious of how much wealthier they are than others. But the criticism of Romney is just the opposite: that it shows him as “out of touch”, i.e. unaware of the vast difference in wealth between him and the average voter. The fact that the bet offer is seen as an unconscious slip is in fact integral to why it is supposedly damaging: it revealed that he doesn’t think of $10,000 as a lot of money. (Rather like how Marie Antoinette supposedly failed to realize that cake might be less accessible to her subjects than herself.)
Mind you, I think this criticism is entirely absurd and facepalm-inducing: apparently the ability to (deceptively) signal to the public that one is an “ordinary person” is a more important quality for a president than being the type of person who puts their money where their mouth is.
Why the hell would you want an ordinary person in charge of the country anyway? You swear at ordinary people when they drive badly; you don’t want a President like that!
(or, “I think that the signal ‘ordinary person here!’ is grossly overweighted when it comes to politics”)
Bill Clinton has plenty of money now, but I don’t think he ever had significant wealth prior to becoming president; his entire career was spent in politics. Hillary made a good living as a lawyer, but not enough that $10k would have been unimportant to them.