This is a nice post that echoes many points in Eliezer’s book Inadequate Equilibria. In short, it is entirely possible that you outperform ‘experts’ or ‘the market’, if there are reasons to believe that these systems converge to a sub-optimal equilibrium, and even more so when you have more information that the ‘experts’, like in your Wave vs Theorem example.
This is a nice post that echoes many points in Eliezer’s book Inadequate Equilibria. In short, it is entirely possible that you outperform ‘experts’ or ‘the market’, if there are reasons to believe that these systems converge to a sub-optimal equilibrium, and even more so when you have more information that the ‘experts’, like in your Wave vs Theorem example.
More related LW concepts: Hero Licensing, and a few essays in the Inside/Outside View tag.