OMG, someone on LW with longer timelines than me.
The diff is distributed between the diffs of P(AGI[1] in n years) and P(doom | AGI in n years), so Nina might just have a lower timeline-conditional p(doom) and not significantly longer timelines.
or ASI or whatever
OMG, someone on LW with longer timelines than me.
The diff is distributed between the diffs of P(AGI[1] in n years) and P(doom | AGI in n years), so Nina might just have a lower timeline-conditional p(doom) and not significantly longer timelines.
or ASI or whatever