I also think you’re very overconfident about superintelligence appearing in our lifetimes, and X-risk being high, but I don’t see why either of those things stop you from having a family.
The “also” in this sentence seems to imply that the disagreement about timelines and the level of risk posed by advanced AI is not your main point?
Correct. Though when writing the original comment I didn’t realize Nikola’s p(doom) within 19yrs was literally >50%. My main point was that even if your p(doom) is relatively high, but <50%, you can expect to be able to raise a family. Even at Nikola’s p(doom) there’s some chance he can raise children to adulthood (15% according to him), which makes it not a completely doomed pursuit if he really wanted them.
I think its reasonable to say you “can’t have a family” if you expect whatever children and partner you have to be killed off fairly shortly if you try.
Like a couple with genetic problems making the likely outcome of them having a child be that the child dies when they’re 3 years old can reasonably say “we can’t have (biological) children”.
Even though its technically true that they could have children if they really wanted to.
The “also” in this sentence seems to imply that the disagreement about timelines and the level of risk posed by advanced AI is not your main point?
Correct. Though when writing the original comment I didn’t realize Nikola’s p(doom) within 19yrs was literally >50%. My main point was that even if your p(doom) is relatively high, but <50%, you can expect to be able to raise a family. Even at Nikola’s p(doom) there’s some chance he can raise children to adulthood (15% according to him), which makes it not a completely doomed pursuit if he really wanted them.
I think its reasonable to say you “can’t have a family” if you expect whatever children and partner you have to be killed off fairly shortly if you try.
Like a couple with genetic problems making the likely outcome of them having a child be that the child dies when they’re 3 years old can reasonably say “we can’t have (biological) children”.
Even though its technically true that they could have children if they really wanted to.