You’re just passing the recursive buck over to “rational”. Taboo rational, and see what you get out; I suspect it will be something along the lines of “minds that determine the right direction to shift the evidence in every case”, which, notably, doesn’t include humans even if you assume that there is an objectively decidable “rational” direction. There is no objectively determinable method to determine what the correct direction to shift is in any case; imagine an agent with anti-occamian priors, who believes that because the coin has come up heads 100 times in a row, it must be more likely to come up tails next time. It’s all a question of priors.
I think there is an objectively right direction to shift, given particular priors. Your anti-regularity observer seems to be making a mistake by becoming more confident if he actually sees heads come up next.
Also, I edited my post above to fix a notational error.
You’re just passing the recursive buck over to “rational”. Taboo rational, and see what you get out; I suspect it will be something along the lines of “minds that determine the right direction to shift the evidence in every case”, which, notably, doesn’t include humans even if you assume that there is an objectively decidable “rational” direction. There is no objectively determinable method to determine what the correct direction to shift is in any case; imagine an agent with anti-occamian priors, who believes that because the coin has come up heads 100 times in a row, it must be more likely to come up tails next time. It’s all a question of priors.
I think there is an objectively right direction to shift, given particular priors. Your anti-regularity observer seems to be making a mistake by becoming more confident if he actually sees heads come up next.
Also, I edited my post above to fix a notational error.