1) Eliezer_Yudkowsky: You should be comparing the percentage (1) change in the S&P 500 (2) to the change (3) in probability of any bailout happening (4) over the days in which the changes occurred (5) and have used more than one day (6). There, that’s six errors in your calculation I count, of varying severity.
2) Tim_Tyler: Yeah, I’m surprised that hasn’t been posted on Slashdot yet. I want to be the first to propose the theory that United Airlines was behind that, since Google was the cause of a recent fake plunge in United’s stock price, when they highly ranked an old story about United’s bankruptcy, fooling some into thinking it was happening again and they need to sell. Okay, maybe not “cause”, but they started the chain reaction, and United blames them.
3) Peter_McCluskey: Whoa whoa whoa, are you now admitting that measuring the correlation between InTrade contracts and financial variables over a succession of days rather than a single day is important?
1) Eliezer_Yudkowsky: You should be comparing the percentage (1) change in the S&P 500 (2) to the change (3) in probability of any bailout happening (4) over the days in which the changes occurred (5) and have used more than one day (6). There, that’s six errors in your calculation I count, of varying severity.
2) Tim_Tyler: Yeah, I’m surprised that hasn’t been posted on Slashdot yet. I want to be the first to propose the theory that United Airlines was behind that, since Google was the cause of a recent fake plunge in United’s stock price, when they highly ranked an old story about United’s bankruptcy, fooling some into thinking it was happening again and they need to sell. Okay, maybe not “cause”, but they started the chain reaction, and United blames them.
3) Peter_McCluskey: Whoa whoa whoa, are you now admitting that measuring the correlation between InTrade contracts and financial variables over a succession of days rather than a single day is important?