I’ve played Wits and Wagers for this reason. But the issue is it doesn’t actually map that well to the skills I actually want (which is “calibrate estimate of how likely and event is to happen”, where the type of event is filtered for ‘the sorts of events I actually care about.’)
has made me pretty decent at calibration. By calibration I mean translating my feeling of uncertainty into a quantitative guess at uncertainty where that guess tracks with reality. I do not mean estimating accurately, I mean these two things:
1. Thinking about a sort of event I actually care about, coming up with a point estimate, then guessing the range around that point estimate such that the true answer is in that range roughly 50% of the time or roughly 90% of the time depending on what I’m going for.
2. Thinking about a sort of event I actually care about, coming up with a lower bound on a point estimate, coming up with an upper bound on a point estimate, shifting those bounds until my feelings of uncertainty that they’re actually lower/upper bounds are approximately equal for both of them, then taking the appropriate mean as my point estimate and having that point estimate be basically as good as I would have come up with in a more analytical way and also way faster to come up with.
I’ve played Wits and Wagers for this reason. But the issue is it doesn’t actually map that well to the skills I actually want (which is “calibrate estimate of how likely and event is to happen”, where the type of event is filtered for ‘the sorts of events I actually care about.’)
Interesting. I believe some combination of
Wits & Wagers (not playing, practicing)
Poker
Software development
Ambient practice
has made me pretty decent at calibration. By calibration I mean translating my feeling of uncertainty into a quantitative guess at uncertainty where that guess tracks with reality. I do not mean estimating accurately, I mean these two things:
1. Thinking about a sort of event I actually care about, coming up with a point estimate, then guessing the range around that point estimate such that the true answer is in that range roughly 50% of the time or roughly 90% of the time depending on what I’m going for.
2. Thinking about a sort of event I actually care about, coming up with a lower bound on a point estimate, coming up with an upper bound on a point estimate, shifting those bounds until my feelings of uncertainty that they’re actually lower/upper bounds are approximately equal for both of them, then taking the appropriate mean as my point estimate and having that point estimate be basically as good as I would have come up with in a more analytical way and also way faster to come up with.