It feels like your background should be attributed differently than things like the Saudi-Russian spat, or the artificially deflated VIX. In Zvi’s terminology this is an Unknown Known; it isn’t as though you weren’t updating based on it. It was merely an unarticulated component of the prior.
It feels like your background should be attributed differently than things like the Saudi-Russian spat, or the artificially deflated VIX. In Zvi’s terminology this is an Unknown Known; it isn’t as though you weren’t updating based on it. It was merely an unarticulated component of the prior.