Someone made a profitable trade ergo markets aren’t efficient?
This is why I said “at least for me”. You’d be right to discount the evidence and he would be right to discount the evidence even more, because of more room for selection bias.
ETA: Hmm, intuitively this makes sense but I’m not sure how it squares up with Aumann Agreement. Maybe someone can try to work out the actual math?
Thank you for sharing this info. My faith is now shaken.
From someone replying to you on Twitter:
This is why I said “at least for me”. You’d be right to discount the evidence and he would be right to discount the evidence even more, because of more room for selection bias.
ETA: Hmm, intuitively this makes sense but I’m not sure how it squares up with Aumann Agreement. Maybe someone can try to work out the actual math?
Would pre-registration fix the issue?
I always thought the EMH was obviously invalid due to it’s connection with the P=NP issue (which is to say the EMH iff P=NP).