I put non-trivial probability mass (>10%) on a relitivisticly expanding bubble of Xonium (computronium, hedonium ect) within 1 second of AGI.
While big jumps are rarer than small jumps, they cover more distance, so it is quite possible we go from a world like this one, except with self driving cars, and a few other narrow AI applications to something smart enough to bootstrap very fast.
One second is preposterous! It’d take at least a minute to get up to relativistic speeds; keep in mind it’ll have to build infrastructure as it goes along, and it’ll start off using human-built tools which aren’t capable of such speeds. No way it can build such powerful tools with human tools in the space of a second.
I’d be surprised if it managed to convert the surface of the planet in less than 10 minutes, to be honest. It might get to the moon in an hour, and have crippled our ability to fight back within 20 seconds, but it’s just intelligent; not magical. Getting to relativistic speeds still requires energy, and Xonium still needs to be made of something.
I put non-trivial probability mass (>10%) on a relitivisticly expanding bubble of Xonium (computronium, hedonium ect) within 1 second of AGI.
While big jumps are rarer than small jumps, they cover more distance, so it is quite possible we go from a world like this one, except with self driving cars, and a few other narrow AI applications to something smart enough to bootstrap very fast.
One second is preposterous! It’d take at least a minute to get up to relativistic speeds; keep in mind it’ll have to build infrastructure as it goes along, and it’ll start off using human-built tools which aren’t capable of such speeds. No way it can build such powerful tools with human tools in the space of a second.
I’d be surprised if it managed to convert the surface of the planet in less than 10 minutes, to be honest. It might get to the moon in an hour, and have crippled our ability to fight back within 20 seconds, but it’s just intelligent; not magical. Getting to relativistic speeds still requires energy, and Xonium still needs to be made of something.
The actual bootstrapping takes months, years or even decades, but it might only take 1 second for the fate of the universe to be locked in.