If we’re talking about the power to say “this startup will fail”, I feel like I had this power all along and it’s not very useful, unless you can make money by shorting startups or something. It would be more useful to have a power that said “this startup will succeed”—that would actually make you rich, but this post doesn’t seem to be it.
For people like you and John Maxwell, I think the best value-add of this post is that you can link smart founders to it who are currently failing the sanity check but are having trouble grasping why. That’s largely why I wrote this and my blog—I keep trying to tell this to various founders, and for a while they don’t listen.
I also think investing 30 $10k checks in smart hard-working founders who can tell one strong value prop story would make a net expected return on the order of 30%/yr, but it’s hard to be sure.
If we’re talking about the power to say “this startup will fail”, I feel like I had this power all along and it’s not very useful, unless you can make money by shorting startups or something. It would be more useful to have a power that said “this startup will succeed”—that would actually make you rich, but this post doesn’t seem to be it.
For people like you and John Maxwell, I think the best value-add of this post is that you can link smart founders to it who are currently failing the sanity check but are having trouble grasping why. That’s largely why I wrote this and my blog—I keep trying to tell this to various founders, and for a while they don’t listen.
I also think investing 30 $10k checks in smart hard-working founders who can tell one strong value prop story would make a net expected return on the order of 30%/yr, but it’s hard to be sure.