I hadn’t realised anyone was arguing for not treating Eliezer’s current predictions with caution. I can’t imagine why anyone wouldn’t treat anyone’s predictions with caution in this field.
My point is that these early pronouncements are (limited) evidence that we should treat Eliezer’s predictions with more caution than we would otherwise.
OK, I guess. I have to say that the main impression I’m getting from this exchange is that you wanted to say “boo Eliezer”; it seems like if you wanted to make an actual usefully constructive point you’d have been somewhat more explicit in your original comment. (“Eliezer wrote this in 1999: [...]. I know that Eliezer has since repudiated a lot of his opinions and thought processes of that period, but if his opinions were that badly wrong in 1999 then we shouldn’t take them too seriously now either.” or whatever.)
I will vigorously defend anyone’s right to say “boo Eliezer” or “yay Eliezer”, but don’t have much optimism about getting a useful outcome from a conversation that begins that way, and will accordingly drop it now.
I hadn’t realised anyone was arguing for not treating Eliezer’s current predictions with caution. I can’t imagine why anyone wouldn’t treat anyone’s predictions with caution in this field.
My point is that these early pronouncements are (limited) evidence that we should treat Eliezer’s predictions with more caution than we would otherwise.
OK, I guess. I have to say that the main impression I’m getting from this exchange is that you wanted to say “boo Eliezer”; it seems like if you wanted to make an actual usefully constructive point you’d have been somewhat more explicit in your original comment. (“Eliezer wrote this in 1999: [...]. I know that Eliezer has since repudiated a lot of his opinions and thought processes of that period, but if his opinions were that badly wrong in 1999 then we shouldn’t take them too seriously now either.” or whatever.)
I will vigorously defend anyone’s right to say “boo Eliezer” or “yay Eliezer”, but don’t have much optimism about getting a useful outcome from a conversation that begins that way, and will accordingly drop it now.
Thanks for the feedback. I agree that a comment worded in the manner you suggest would have communicated my point more effectively.