I will note that this seems as though it ought to be a problem that we can gather data on. We don’t have to theorize if we can look find a good sampling of cases in which a minister said they would resign, and then look at when they actually resigned.
Additionally, this post is mostly about a particular question involving anticipating political change, but the post title sounds like a more abstract issue in probability theory (how we should react if we learn that we will believe something at some later point).
I will note that this seems as though it ought to be a problem that we can gather data on. We don’t have to theorize if we can look find a good sampling of cases in which a minister said they would resign, and then look at when they actually resigned.
Additionally, this post is mostly about a particular question involving anticipating political change, but the post title sounds like a more abstract issue in probability theory (how we should react if we learn that we will believe something at some later point).