Thanks. Hmm, I guess these still don’t seem that plausible to me. What is your credence that something in the category you describe will happen, and count as a warning shot?
(It’s possible that an AI might shoot itself in the foot, but before it does anything super scary, such that it doesn’t have the warning shot effect.)
Note my edit to the original question about the meaning of “substantial.”
Thanks. Hmm, I guess these still don’t seem that plausible to me. What is your credence that something in the category you describe will happen, and count as a warning shot?
(It’s possible that an AI might shoot itself in the foot, but before it does anything super scary, such that it doesn’t have the warning shot effect.)
Note my edit to the original question about the meaning of “substantial.”
I’d give it something in the 2%-10% range. Definitely not likely.