Sorry, but you can’t get around the fact that humans are not well equipped to compute probabilities. We can’t even state what our priors are in any reasonable sense much less compute exact probabilities.
As a result using probabilities has come to be associated with having some kind of model. If you’ve never studied the question and are asked how likely you think it is there are intelligent aliens you say something like “I think it’s quite likely”. You only answer with a number if you’ve broken it down into a model (chance life evolves average time to evolve intelligencechance of disaster*..).
Thus, saying something like “70% chance” indicates to most people that you are claiming your knowledge is the result of some kind of detailed computation and can thus be seen as an attempt to claim authority. You can’t change this rule on your own.
Thankfully, there are easy verbal alternatives. “Ehh, I guess I would give 3:1 odds on it” and many others. But use of chance/probability language isn’t it.
Sorry, but you can’t get around the fact that humans are not well equipped to compute probabilities. We can’t even state what our priors are in any reasonable sense much less compute exact probabilities.
As a result using probabilities has come to be associated with having some kind of model. If you’ve never studied the question and are asked how likely you think it is there are intelligent aliens you say something like “I think it’s quite likely”. You only answer with a number if you’ve broken it down into a model (chance life evolves average time to evolve intelligencechance of disaster*..).
Thus, saying something like “70% chance” indicates to most people that you are claiming your knowledge is the result of some kind of detailed computation and can thus be seen as an attempt to claim authority. You can’t change this rule on your own.
Thankfully, there are easy verbal alternatives. “Ehh, I guess I would give 3:1 odds on it” and many others. But use of chance/probability language isn’t it.