The CDC offers a pretty short list of things to do as far as prevention goes. Surely that can’t be all there is. Why not post something similar to our Justified Practical Advice thread? At least with low cost/risk ideas like copper tape and taking vitamin D.
And for more unclear or controversial things like wearing a mask, why not offer a nuanced discussion of the trade-offs involved?
The fact that they haven’t done these things reduces their credibility in my eyes.
The CDC’s role is to protect the public as a whole, and communicate with them in ways that minimize the burden of diseases. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t trust the CDC, just that you shouldn’t assume their goal is to advance epistemic purity. But as far as I can tell, treating them as you sole source and doing exactly what they say, and encouraging others to do the same, would make us all better off than most of the personal advice lesswrong is advising.
If the CDC says “disposable masks reduce your chance of becoming infected very slightly,” (which is likely true if you use them properly, which, to be clear, most people won’t do,) what happens next? The entirely predictable result is that hospitals will not be able to buy them, hospital staff gets sick more often, and then there are staff shortages when they are needed most, leading to far more deaths. That almost certainly makes people as a whole worse off, so they don’t do that. (People who wanted to be virtuous instead of selfish might even decide to only do what the CDC recommends.)
The CDC also need to communicate in ways that idiots won’t misconstrue, and a nuanced discussion of interventions that are unscalable or that could be dangerous if done wrong, or that are difficult to do, would be similarly a really stupid thing for the CDC to publish. Maybe a few examples would help.
Is buying an oxygen concentrator a good idea? Possibly, for some people who are able to understand the risks and benefits, and who can monitor their own blood oxygen level while sick enough to need to use. That’s absolutely not something the CDC should advise people with a 8th grade reading level to try to do at home. After oxygen concentrators run out in stores because people on Lesswrong decide to do this, (and the people who are most likely to need them cannot get them because the supply is gone and companies that have them to sell have gone so far into price gouging that they stopped listing prices and need you to call for a quote,) is building your own oxygen concentrator to use in case of worst case outcome and ER overload a good idea? Maybe, if you can also monitor to make sure it’s not spewing carcinogens along with the oxygen or putting burning oil into your lungs, which requires a fairly good understanding of engineering for medical devices.
“disposable masks reduce your chance of becoming infected very slightly,” (which is likely true if you use them properly, which, to be clear, most people won’t do)
I am confused why you would say this, after this thread, which suggested a 60%-80% reduced infection rate for influenza-like viruses, and you said you updated on the value of masks when worn by the general population without being fitted. “Very slightly, if you wear them properly” does not seem at all compatible with the evidence, and also seems clearly contradicted by the emphasis that the chinese governments puts on the use of masks. I again would ask for a source for this claim that masks that aren’t worn properly only have very little effectiveness.
I think that we should distinguish between two different questions. 1) Is what they’re communicating good information for me? 2) Is what they’re communicating good for society?
I interpreted “credibility” as related to the first question. And my point was that a) the lack of info and b) the lack of nuanced discussion of info makes me think that this credibility is reduced.
You’re saying that the post is interested in supporting defecting and causing societal harm for personal benefit? I hope that isn’t the case, but if it is, we should be far clearer in condemning the provision of information to support people doing this.
You’re saying that the post is interested in supporting defecting and causing societal harm for personal benefit?
I’m simply commenting on the “personal benefit” part without acknowledging the “good for society” part.
Not that the “good for society” part isn’t important. Of course it is. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have conversations about the “personal benefit” part in isolation.
The CDC offers a pretty short list of things to do as far as prevention goes. Surely that can’t be all there is. Why not post something similar to our Justified Practical Advice thread? At least with low cost/risk ideas like copper tape and taking vitamin D.
And for more unclear or controversial things like wearing a mask, why not offer a nuanced discussion of the trade-offs involved?
The fact that they haven’t done these things reduces their credibility in my eyes.
The CDC’s role is to protect the public as a whole, and communicate with them in ways that minimize the burden of diseases. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t trust the CDC, just that you shouldn’t assume their goal is to advance epistemic purity. But as far as I can tell, treating them as you sole source and doing exactly what they say, and encouraging others to do the same, would make us all better off than most of the personal advice lesswrong is advising.
If the CDC says “disposable masks reduce your chance of becoming infected very slightly,” (which is likely true if you use them properly, which, to be clear, most people won’t do,) what happens next? The entirely predictable result is that hospitals will not be able to buy them, hospital staff gets sick more often, and then there are staff shortages when they are needed most, leading to far more deaths. That almost certainly makes people as a whole worse off, so they don’t do that. (People who wanted to be virtuous instead of selfish might even decide to only do what the CDC recommends.)
The CDC also need to communicate in ways that idiots won’t misconstrue, and a nuanced discussion of interventions that are unscalable or that could be dangerous if done wrong, or that are difficult to do, would be similarly a really stupid thing for the CDC to publish. Maybe a few examples would help.
Is buying an oxygen concentrator a good idea? Possibly, for some people who are able to understand the risks and benefits, and who can monitor their own blood oxygen level while sick enough to need to use. That’s absolutely not something the CDC should advise people with a 8th grade reading level to try to do at home. After oxygen concentrators run out in stores because people on Lesswrong decide to do this, (and the people who are most likely to need them cannot get them because the supply is gone and companies that have them to sell have gone so far into price gouging that they stopped listing prices and need you to call for a quote,) is building your own oxygen concentrator to use in case of worst case outcome and ER overload a good idea? Maybe, if you can also monitor to make sure it’s not spewing carcinogens along with the oxygen or putting burning oil into your lungs, which requires a fairly good understanding of engineering for medical devices.
I am confused why you would say this, after this thread, which suggested a 60%-80% reduced infection rate for influenza-like viruses, and you said you updated on the value of masks when worn by the general population without being fitted. “Very slightly, if you wear them properly” does not seem at all compatible with the evidence, and also seems clearly contradicted by the emphasis that the chinese governments puts on the use of masks. I again would ask for a source for this claim that masks that aren’t worn properly only have very little effectiveness.
I think that we should distinguish between two different questions. 1) Is what they’re communicating good information for me? 2) Is what they’re communicating good for society?
I interpreted “credibility” as related to the first question. And my point was that a) the lack of info and b) the lack of nuanced discussion of info makes me think that this credibility is reduced.
You’re saying that the post is interested in supporting defecting and causing societal harm for personal benefit? I hope that isn’t the case, but if it is, we should be far clearer in condemning the provision of information to support people doing this.
Am I misunderstanding something?
I’m simply commenting on the “personal benefit” part without acknowledging the “good for society” part.
Not that the “good for society” part isn’t important. Of course it is. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have conversations about the “personal benefit” part in isolation.
Defecting in a prisoners dilemma is personally beneficial in isolation—so why look at the whole game, when you can discuss part of it?