None of these aggregation methods are the most accurate source of forecasts on a Ukraine cease-fire—that would be Putin and Zelenskyy, who could have secret plans they haven’t announced.
While those two have secret plans that matter, they might also be bad at predicting how event unfold. Military leaders in general are often wrong about how they expect war to play out even if they have secret information.
While those two have secret plans that matter, they might also be bad at predicting how event unfold. Military leaders in general are often wrong about how they expect war to play out even if they have secret information.