There was far more progress in aviation from 1920–1970 than from 1970–2020. In 1920, planes were still mostly made of wood and fabric. By 1970 most planes had jet engines and flew at ~600mph. Today planes actually fly a bit slower than they did in 1970. Yes, there has been progress in safety and cost, but it doesn’t compare to the previous 50-year period.
Similar pattern for automobiles and even highways.
In 1980′s it took 6 hrs to get to my grandmothers place. Today it is more like 3 hrs. All that not because of better cars but because there’s a highway covering most of the distance.
In 1980 people rarely traveled by plane. A holiday by seaside meant a 12 hour ride by car to Yugoslavia. Today, everyone’s flying to Turkey and Canary Islands.
Ah, you are from Eastern Europe? To clarify, the stagnation hypothesis is about the frontier of technological development in the wealthiest countries. I don’t think there has necessarily been stagnation in global development.
Out of curiosity, where do logistics fit into the categorization you use? I ask because we seem to be measuring only by top-line numbers like mph, but mph was never the point in the first place—now almost everyone in the country can get almost anything made anywhere in the country dropped on their front porch in ~2 days. In real terms this is a radical increase in speed for transport of goods.
My guess is something like the overlap of transport and information; logistics is information applied to transport. It doesn’t change the thesis really, I just notice that a lot of things we now rely on that they didn’t have during the periods of high growth is the notion of on net, which we now apply very widely but in the 19th-20th centuries prior to computers was represented chiefly by manufacturing and notions like vertical integration.
There was far more progress in aviation from 1920–1970 than from 1970–2020. In 1920, planes were still mostly made of wood and fabric. By 1970 most planes had jet engines and flew at ~600mph. Today planes actually fly a bit slower than they did in 1970. Yes, there has been progress in safety and cost, but it doesn’t compare to the previous 50-year period.
Similar pattern for automobiles and even highways.
I was speaking from personal experience.
In 1980′s it took 6 hrs to get to my grandmothers place. Today it is more like 3 hrs. All that not because of better cars but because there’s a highway covering most of the distance.
In 1980 people rarely traveled by plane. A holiday by seaside meant a 12 hour ride by car to Yugoslavia. Today, everyone’s flying to Turkey and Canary Islands.
Ah, you are from Eastern Europe? To clarify, the stagnation hypothesis is about the frontier of technological development in the wealthiest countries. I don’t think there has necessarily been stagnation in global development.
Yes, I am from Eastern Europe. That made me wonder whether the densification of the road system has slowed down in the west.
Here are statistics for the US:
In short, there’s a slowdown, but it starts in ’90.
Source
Air miles per capita seem to tell a different story though:
Source
Out of curiosity, where do logistics fit into the categorization you use? I ask because we seem to be measuring only by top-line numbers like mph, but mph was never the point in the first place—now almost everyone in the country can get almost anything made anywhere in the country dropped on their front porch in ~2 days. In real terms this is a radical increase in speed for transport of goods.
My guess is something like the overlap of transport and information; logistics is information applied to transport. It doesn’t change the thesis really, I just notice that a lot of things we now rely on that they didn’t have during the periods of high growth is the notion of on net, which we now apply very widely but in the 19th-20th centuries prior to computers was represented chiefly by manufacturing and notions like vertical integration.
Yes, I put logistics under transportation. Transportation of cargo has always been more important than passenger travel.
Containerization was huge, but it mostly happened 50+ years ago.