In this video, Matt Parker and Hannah Fry perform a thought experiment from Bayes’s original notes that uses no math at all. After that, they overlay a probability distribution on the experiment and show the certainty increasing, all without worrying about the math. Finally, they show the equation briefly near the end of the video. (Turns out Bayes didn’t actually work out the math himself, anyway; Laplace did that work.) They don’t really go into the math at all, but rather discuss the idea of updating beliefs based on new information.
The whole video is about 13 minutes long (+ end of video stuff), but most of that is the experiment itself (which they do in real time).
In this video, Matt Parker and Hannah Fry perform a thought experiment from Bayes’s original notes that uses no math at all. After that, they overlay a probability distribution on the experiment and show the certainty increasing, all without worrying about the math. Finally, they show the equation briefly near the end of the video. (Turns out Bayes didn’t actually work out the math himself, anyway; Laplace did that work.) They don’t really go into the math at all, but rather discuss the idea of updating beliefs based on new information.
The whole video is about 13 minutes long (+ end of video stuff), but most of that is the experiment itself (which they do in real time).